This was my recent projection for SGDJPY:
I had thought that it could go to 83. However, I would like to change my idea now and I'll tell you why.
Firstly, the new Big Picture (4 hourly):
I think I may need to explain why I count my waves this way. So let's start from the first corrective up wave W-X-Y in green.
Previously I had labelled it as 1-2-3-4-5, even though that was clearly wrong because of the overlap between wave 4 and wave 1.
What you are seeing as W is actually a 5-3-5 with the last "5" as an ending diagonal.
X is an expanded flat and Y is well, a 5 waves up.
The next X is quite clear as a 3-waves and the Z is also clear as a 5.
Next we talk about the Fibonacci extension for the 1-2-3-4-5 after Z. Why did I do this? The main reason is because the Fibonacci Extension Tool only goes up to 4.236x. I need to know if there is a Fibonacci relationship between wave 1 and the entire wave structure. Thus, after measuring wave 1, I extend the wave from the bottom of wave 1. It matches exactly, giving me the confidence that the entire down trend belongs to a single wave of a higher degree.
Next, we talk about the corrective wave W-X-Y. I had wanted to classify it as A-B-C-D-E originally. But that will be looking at the tree and missing the forest. Put it simply, if the next wave down of a higher degree is supposed to be huge and a continuation of a wave of a 2-higher degree (continuation of the first 1-2-3-4-5 in blue on the left most of the screen), then we cannot label the last corrective structure as a potential triangle because we are expecting a wave 3 instead of a wave C. For the uninitiated, a 3-3-3-3-3 triangle in Elliott Wave context is always the last corrective move before a final impulse move, thus it can only appear in wave B, X, or 4.
Now that the reasons on how I labelled the waves are out of the way, it should be clear that SGDJPY is now a short. Add to the fact that the current price level is actually a Support and Resistance Zone for this cross (see the number of turning points in the purple shaded box). More recent times, it actually turned the currency pair thrice (counting this time).
The risk-reward on shorting this pair should now be clear. Place your stop above the resistance zone.
I had thought that it could go to 83. However, I would like to change my idea now and I'll tell you why.
Firstly, the new Big Picture (4 hourly):
I think I may need to explain why I count my waves this way. So let's start from the first corrective up wave W-X-Y in green.
Previously I had labelled it as 1-2-3-4-5, even though that was clearly wrong because of the overlap between wave 4 and wave 1.
What you are seeing as W is actually a 5-3-5 with the last "5" as an ending diagonal.
X is an expanded flat and Y is well, a 5 waves up.
The next X is quite clear as a 3-waves and the Z is also clear as a 5.
Next we talk about the Fibonacci extension for the 1-2-3-4-5 after Z. Why did I do this? The main reason is because the Fibonacci Extension Tool only goes up to 4.236x. I need to know if there is a Fibonacci relationship between wave 1 and the entire wave structure. Thus, after measuring wave 1, I extend the wave from the bottom of wave 1. It matches exactly, giving me the confidence that the entire down trend belongs to a single wave of a higher degree.
Next, we talk about the corrective wave W-X-Y. I had wanted to classify it as A-B-C-D-E originally. But that will be looking at the tree and missing the forest. Put it simply, if the next wave down of a higher degree is supposed to be huge and a continuation of a wave of a 2-higher degree (continuation of the first 1-2-3-4-5 in blue on the left most of the screen), then we cannot label the last corrective structure as a potential triangle because we are expecting a wave 3 instead of a wave C. For the uninitiated, a 3-3-3-3-3 triangle in Elliott Wave context is always the last corrective move before a final impulse move, thus it can only appear in wave B, X, or 4.
Now that the reasons on how I labelled the waves are out of the way, it should be clear that SGDJPY is now a short. Add to the fact that the current price level is actually a Support and Resistance Zone for this cross (see the number of turning points in the purple shaded box). More recent times, it actually turned the currency pair thrice (counting this time).
The risk-reward on shorting this pair should now be clear. Place your stop above the resistance zone.
