I guessed this was 4 of five of which this current bounce is B of three down.
1 on 2/10
2 on 4/5
3 on 7/5
4 on 10/7 OR at the lower trendline.
5 where the big "Y" is , the fib 1.618 which I agree with.
My question being, will we have a lower low before heading higher?
Thanks for the quick reply.
Your above chart is exactly what I was asking.
I see about a 65% chance of silver following the above wave count (a lower low after this bounce)
That would leave a 35% chance of your original chart being correct (no lower low)
Even though I am VERY bullish long term, I know how it goes.
The psychology now is the same as it was in 2002 when silver broke down below 5$ (now it just broke below $20)
If silver does make a lower low, the miners very well may not. I see a much lower probability of gold making the same move lower say 35%.
See 2002 gold, SSRI,PAAS,CDE,HL
I bought back AG, USAPF, EXLLF last week and hold EXK
Here is my first Tradingview saved chart. I drew before seeing your reply chart.
Notice my targets are almost exactly the same, just below $17 and just below $18.50