aibek
Long

Silver. Possible wave count. One more up is pending

TVC:SILVER   SILVER (US$/OZ)
Silver             can hit upside one more time within the large degree corrective structure.
Comment: 4H update
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/q9nQ0LK4/
How can I tell if the current upwave is a B or a 1? I do not claim to understand Elliot, but I'm trying to learn, I see a pretty high probability of hitting your lower trendline (when drawn in log. Tradingview which is AWESOME, default keeps messing me up) I don't understand why the ups are w x y instead of a five count.
I guessed this was 4 of five of which this current bounce is B of three down.
1 on 2/10
2 on 4/5
3 on 7/5
4 on 10/7 OR at the lower trendline.
5 where the big "Y" is , the fib 1.618 which I agree with.
My question being, will we have a lower low before heading higher?
TIA,
TheLorax


Reply
aibek EdTheLorax
Hi EdTheLorax! Thanks for your question!
This is how I see it inside now
snapshot
Reply
aibek,
Thanks for the quick reply.
Your above chart is exactly what I was asking.
I see about a 65% chance of silver following the above wave count (a lower low after this bounce)
That would leave a 35% chance of your original chart being correct (no lower low)
Even though I am VERY bullish long term, I know how it goes.
The psychology now is the same as it was in 2002 when silver broke down below 5$ (now it just broke below $20)
If silver does make a lower low, the miners very well may not. I see a much lower probability of gold making the same move lower say 35%.
See 2002 gold, SSRI,PAAS,CDE,HL
I bought back AG, USAPF, EXLLF last week and hold EXK
Here is my first Tradingview saved chart. I drew before seeing your reply chart.
Notice my targets are almost exactly the same, just below $17 and just below $18.50
snapshot


Reply
Thanks mate...Appreciated.
Reply
aibek piptamil
You are welcome!
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