QuantitativeExhaustion
Long

Russia-United States Tensions Rise on Bad Moon

AMEX:SLV   ISHARES SILVER TRUST
499 18 29
Tension with Russia and United States is growing over Ukraine's Crimea region. Recently the European Union and United States slapped sanctions on Russian lawmakers and businessmen; Russia responded with its own list of sanctions against a number of U.S. lawmakers and officials. Wealthy individuals are starting to look for a safe place to stock away money, and gold-silver             is looking like the correct option after the recent Mt. Gox Bitcoin market closure.

Off the Charts -

Elliott Wave - The long awaited retracement is over for silver             . It's been nearly one month since we peaked in silver             . By my count silver             previous wave 3 of 5 had a wave extension, topping out at $22.18. Since the topping of silver             , I've counted corrective wave counts 5-3-5 / A-B-C zig-zag pattern, and I'm certain our correction is over. You can zoom-in on this chart, and follow the Elliott Wave counts. For the larger picture with silver             , I have a wave (5) 3 truncated. co-author Quyen Nguyen

Chart Pattern - Notable chart pattern is the Double Bottom adam-eve             pattern. The Double Bottom pattern pictured here has a unique pullback to the previous shelf support, which is also the .618 retracement. .618 is often the support of a Wave 1 to Wave 2 ending retracement, with rare occasions the pullback reaches .786 or even .886.

Fibonacci Extension/Retracement Confluence -

SLV             - 19.48, 20.61 22.53 , 24.92, 27.15, 27.95
XAGUSD             - 19.87, 20.61, 23.11, 25.85, 29.53

Planetary Analysis -

Silver             has always had a unique relationship with moon phases, Summer-Spring Solstices, Spring-Fall Equinoxes, Apogee (Moon furthest from Earth) -Perigee (Moon closest to Earth), and Solar or Lunar Eclipses. The moon reached a full moon on March 16th, Spring Equinox was March 20th, Perigee on the March 27th and a new moon on March 31st.

For the month of April, the moon reaches Apogee April 8th, Full Lunar Eclipse Moon on April 15th, and Perigee on April 23rd ending the month with a partial Solar Eclipse on April 29th.

Also notable is Pluto-Neptune retrogrades, which often mark pivot low/high breakouts in gold-silver             . In April Pluto turns retrograde on April 14th through September 23. Neptune turns retrograde On June 9th Neptune turns retrograde through November 16th.

Great work!
+2 Reply
QuantitativeExhaustion PRO vlad.adrian
2 years ago
Thanks

If you have an idea of where silver is headed post the chart here. As an avid follower of gold/silver, I'd like to see what you have
+4 Reply
vlad.adrian PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Hello JR, I had a closer look and I spotted something on the weekly. Please bear in mind that I do not follow silver, I do not watch fundamentals, and my opinion is just at first glance, so there's a high chance I might be wrong. On the short term I expect either a further fall, or a consolidation. Here is my chart
snapshot

Have a look and tell me what you think
+3 Reply
LEONES PRO
2 years ago
I don't think tension is rising. Russia and Europe have done the deal! Crimea to Russia and Ukraine to Europe! Democratic vote
+3 Reply
OldGoat LEONES
2 years ago
With 20% of the population of Crimea being Tatars and another 20% being mostly Ukrainian, it seems unlikely that 97% of the population actually voted to be annexed by Russia. Also consider that many of the protesters in Crimea and the rest of Ukraine are not actually Ukrainian residents. I doubt that democracy has anything to do with what is going on.

Yes, the World is turning a blind eye to the Crimean annexation -- for now. However, this sets a bad precedence and it is highly probable that this is not over. At the same time, it is very difficult to predict whether serious problems will surface next week or in ten years. The formal treaty between Ukraine and EU that was signed a few days ago will not set well with Putin. Russia has amassed troops on the border. They have also made incursions into eastern Ukraine and killed/wounded Ukrainian soldiers. Putin is cranking up nationalistic feelings in the Ukrainian people. And much of the world, particularly Europe, is noticing the striking similarities between current Russian actions and those of Germany in the 1930s. Few in the West want a war and that is why they are trying so hard to find a way out of this. The harder Putin pushes the more likely he is going to find the tipping point where people seek revenge -- that could ignite a war. This is a very dangerous game that Putin has started.
+2 Reply
Thanks for that update. Do you know when is Russia's deadline for the Ukraine's to move out of Crimea?
+4 Reply
OldGoat QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
I do not know the timetable for Ukraine's withdrawal. However, Russia seems to be impatient. Around Noon ET Bloomberg reported, "shots heard as Crimea's Belbek Military Airport near Sevastopol being stormed by pro-Russia forces".

Regarding Germany, I'm under the impression that they are going along with the EU consensus. Of interest is that Merkel commented earlier this month that she thought Putin was out of touch with reality (that is not a quote, but gets to the sentiment).
+2 Reply
LEONES PRO OldGoat
2 years ago
I don't know much of Russian history migration of population but I think it is difficult to say who is Russian and who is Ukrainian or Tartar. The fact is that Russia has prepared this intervention really well and the result is a democratic annexation of Crimea. Behind that there is economic interests of course, Crimea has a strategic position in the Black Sea.. I don't think there will be a war
+2 Reply
OldGoat LEONES
2 years ago
I hope they can avoid war. We are not close to one at this point, but things can change very fast.

I disagree that this was a "democratic" annexation. The Tartars are not Russian, and have an unpleasant history with Russia. They would not vote to become part of Russia. The Ukrainians are also not Russian, though their distaste for Russians was not as strong as the Tartars. Putin has violated the sovereignty of a group of people that were mildly anti-Russian moving toward increasingly friendly relations.

Also, if it was so "democratic" why did Putin send in Russian troops?
+2 Reply
LEONES PRO OldGoat
2 years ago
what I don't understand is the involvement of the USA...
+1 Reply
OldGoat LEONES
2 years ago
The USA has the largest military and economy on this planet. Military action (yes, sending troops into another country violating that country's sovereignty is a military action) by a major player means USA will be involved. They are also part of NATO.

And as much as the USA invading Iraq was wrong, this is a very different set of circumstances. Putin may want to bring back the glory days of the USSR, but this is not likely to produce that result. Perhaps his intention is to distract people from Sochi and his handling of the Russian economy -- other politicians have done much worse.
+3 Reply
Russia-Crimea might have a deal, but still not sure about how Germany responded
+4 Reply
Great written analysis, I would like to see that on the chart as well! as its not clear for the audience. GL
+1 Reply
QuantitativeExhaustion PRO Technician
2 years ago
What would you like to see?
+4 Reply
Gold Silver Ratio has a unique chart. Shaping a corrective Stair Stepper Pattern or Mountain Climber Pattern (5) a3-b3-c3-d3-e3 with extensions f3-g3-h3-i3
snapshot
+4 Reply
CARDINAL GRAND CROSS ASPECTS
I have done some research of past cardinal squares and T-squares from 1 AD. In the previous weeks I have covered each the planetary alignments individually. But on April 23 it all comes together! After looking at the history, the theme seems to be one of powerful dynasties taking power, starvation, fear of the end of the world and currency loosing value. I think the Cardinal T Square of 1344 is particularly significant since it shows the beginning of the fake money ruling the world and the elites holding power over the masses by creating debt. The cross also fell around 13 Degrees of the Cardinal signs as it does this year.

I thought it was important only to research Cardinal Crosses (Not fixed or mutable with the same planets) to get a clear idea of its specific energy. Cardinal signs are natural leaders and initiators. The mode is pioneering, conquering and carries great force. If that Cardinal power battery also contains catalysts of change (Uranus and Pluto) combined with military might (Mars and Jupiter.) then we really are in for a life-changing event of epic proportions. In the natural zodiac the cardinal cross covers the four fundamentals. Ourself (Aries) V Partner (Libra), Career (Capricorn) V Home life (Cancer.) Important transits that occur within this cross will change the very foundations of our lives. Those who get this falling in their angular houses will feel the force of it the strongest.

Mars opposite Uranus ~ Risk-takers, adrenaline junkies, fireworks, emergency workers, electrically-charged, explosive, flash.
Mars square Pluto ~ Survivors, dominators, steel guts, stalkers, rapists, unrivalled stamina, phoenix from the flames, thriving on danger, sexually voracious.
Mars square Jupiter ~ Bawdy, go-getters, pushy, competitive, conquistadors, adventurers, heroic, dashing knights, irrepressible, winners, persistent, rollicking rollers, hot-blooded, enthusiastic, dare-devils, reckless.
Jupiter square Uranus ~ Sudden departures, religious rebels, kundalini awakening, enlightenment crisis, freedom fighters, eccentric gurus, leaps of faith, devil-may-care attitude, the tarots “fool”, caged birds who need to fly, nymph chasers.
Jupiter opposite Pluto ~ Super success, religious fanatics, law breakers, renegades, worshipping gurus, pedophile priests, overcoming addiction, projecting shadows onto leaders, forceful gods, laying down the law, the power of truth, justice, hidden truth uncovered, self righteousness, judgemental.
Uranus square Pluto ~ Encounters with tyranny, breaking with the past, crisis of action, dictators and depression, dominators V resistance, thunderstruck towers, craving authority v rebellion, radical changes, rebuilding Utopia from the ground up, cathartic diarrhoea, non-violent disobedience, sexual revolution, hidden violence, cyber wars, drug control.

Cardinal Aspect by Marina Macario
+4 Reply
OldGoat
2 years ago
My apologies JR. I got a little carried away with the geopolitics. My hope is everything turns out okay and no one else gets hurt.

Good Luck in your trading.
+3 Reply
snapshot


Cracked support .. took a deeper look into last 5 count structure and fibonacci retracements.
+4 Reply
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