5/22/24 - $snow - tough valuation bar into print, buyer beware

5/22/24 - vrockstar - SNOW - >10x sales for 20% sales growth is a tough rubicon to cross with conviction in this mkt w/ many faster growers at better valuations. nevermind PE... at >100x, which is the inferior metric here mainly b/c the sales optic is so egregious. i'd counterpoint myself by saying 2% fcf yield looks good... but it's... all... stock... comp... for a stock that's going up/ i give a pass. but for a stock that's down and to the right, friends, let's be real, this is a cash expense. they issue shares, buy the shares back. it's the same thing as paying the employees in cash. so basically they're not generating a true 2% fcf yield. i'd stay away from this generally. not clear on what the print brings, but it's a candidate to be sent down 20% like other B2B and VERY UNLIKELY the converse is true. so the risk reward is defn lower vs. higher. BUYER BEWARE.

Comment:

We're testing the wicks pointed out in the mar '23 context. but given the px action, factor issue, dilution etc. etc. it's hard for me not to imagine this will test high $110s. he11 look at NICE today - 14x PE and generates a lot of cash b/c a MSFT announcement. all this non-mega-eat-yo-mama-brains software is cracking hard. short them while they're still expensive as funding and buy cheap stuff like YOU that remains totally off the radar of pods and LO's.

Wb curious if anyone has a more nuanced view of $snow. i understand the product is decent, but expensive, which is getting cut in this environment. tough one, i remain confidently on the sidelines here w/ a "next look" target of $111.