SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC - COULD GET RE-EVALUEATED
Background:
Simon Property Group Inc. Financial | REIT - Retail | USA
Simon Property Group, Inc. is an equity real estate investment trust. The firm invests in the real estate markets across the globe. It engages in investment, ownership, management, and development of properties. It primarily invests in regional malls, premium outlets, mills, and community/lifestyle centres to create its portfolio. Simon Property Group, Inc. was founded in 1960 and is based in Indianapolis, Indiana, with additional office in New York, New York.
There are some small and large REIT in this Industry group of which taking the Capital Value and number of shares traded daily volume its nearest competitors are :
General Growth Properties Inc (GGP)
Kimco Reality Corp (KIM)
O Reality Income Corp (O)
Of which Simon Property Group is the largest but has lowest daily traded volume of the 4. You can research more on the company for other details if required.
Summary of technicals:
1. Price at all time high but progress is now seems to be lethargic.
2. Wave counts are not very clear, may be it is forming a rising wedge (ending diagonal) show in red with magenta labels.
3. There is price symmetries cluster, ie AB = CD in and 200% of Fib extension of the swing BC in the 210 - 220 zone. So it could have little head room before forming top.
4. There are divergences being formed on RSI, MACD and Relative Strength Vs S&P500.
5. Earnings Announcement is due on 26th April 2016 which could be in line with markets anticipation or better, which could give it that final push to make new high before reversing or if it disappoints, we could see weakness.
6. Out of the 4 listed above this is second strongest stock but could form spike high and result in potential failed breakout.
7. It is interesting that an Insider selling significant monetary value only just before the earnings announcement at possible price top is interesting
Insider Trading Relationship Date Transaction Cost #Shares Value ($) #Shares Total SEC Form 4
CONTIS DAVID J Sr. EVP/Pres.
- Simon Malls Mar 21 Sale 202.63 11,000 2,228,929 15,163 Mar 22 01:58 PM
Conclusion:
Close to forming a cycle top in proximity of price symmetry accompanied by divergences in the momentum and relative strength Vs S&P500 suggest it is vulnerable for correction. Insider selling noted adds further reason weakness. Initial target could be in the region of 110 -120
Action:
As price could move higher to 210 -220 potential trade should not be executed immediately. on 15/04/2016 before the market opens the price is at $207.95.
Consider buying Jan 2017 PUT with Strike Price $100 which is quoted $0.65 - $1.02 (ie 37c spread) others have much wider spreads. Last trade is show as $0.90
So have a Pending Order for $0.50 or $0.60 which could get filled on any movement of the stock to the upside.
If we get a drop to $120 before Jan 2017 we could have possible 7 - 10 times our initial risk.
Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me the most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, please do your own analysis for your trade and risk management. You should follow this on Paper Trading Account till you feel confident to apply the skill to a live account.
DanV
danv-charting.com
Simon Property Group Inc. Financial | REIT - Retail | USA
Simon Property Group, Inc. is an equity real estate investment trust. The firm invests in the real estate markets across the globe. It engages in investment, ownership, management, and development of properties. It primarily invests in regional malls, premium outlets, mills, and community/lifestyle centres to create its portfolio. Simon Property Group, Inc. was founded in 1960 and is based in Indianapolis, Indiana, with additional office in New York, New York.
There are some small and large REIT in this Industry group of which taking the Capital Value and number of shares traded daily volume its nearest competitors are :
General Growth Properties Inc (GGP)
Kimco Reality Corp (KIM)
O Reality Income Corp (O)
Of which Simon Property Group is the largest but has lowest daily traded volume of the 4. You can research more on the company for other details if required.
Summary of technicals:
1. Price at all time high but progress is now seems to be lethargic.
2. Wave counts are not very clear, may be it is forming a rising wedge (ending diagonal) show in red with magenta labels.
3. There is price symmetries cluster, ie AB = CD in and 200% of Fib extension of the swing BC in the 210 - 220 zone. So it could have little head room before forming top.
4. There are divergences being formed on RSI, MACD and Relative Strength Vs S&P500.
5. Earnings Announcement is due on 26th April 2016 which could be in line with markets anticipation or better, which could give it that final push to make new high before reversing or if it disappoints, we could see weakness.
6. Out of the 4 listed above this is second strongest stock but could form spike high and result in potential failed breakout.
7. It is interesting that an Insider selling significant monetary value only just before the earnings announcement at possible price top is interesting
Insider Trading Relationship Date Transaction Cost #Shares Value ($) #Shares Total SEC Form 4
CONTIS DAVID J Sr. EVP/Pres.
- Simon Malls Mar 21 Sale 202.63 11,000 2,228,929 15,163 Mar 22 01:58 PM
Conclusion:
Close to forming a cycle top in proximity of price symmetry accompanied by divergences in the momentum and relative strength Vs S&P500 suggest it is vulnerable for correction. Insider selling noted adds further reason weakness. Initial target could be in the region of 110 -120
Action:
As price could move higher to 210 -220 potential trade should not be executed immediately. on 15/04/2016 before the market opens the price is at $207.95.
Consider buying Jan 2017 PUT with Strike Price $100 which is quoted $0.65 - $1.02 (ie 37c spread) others have much wider spreads. Last trade is show as $0.90
So have a Pending Order for $0.50 or $0.60 which could get filled on any movement of the stock to the upside.
If we get a drop to $120 before Jan 2017 we could have possible 7 - 10 times our initial risk.
Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me the most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, please do your own analysis for your trade and risk management. You should follow this on Paper Trading Account till you feel confident to apply the skill to a live account.
DanV
danv-charting.com
