I am always hesitant to post on things I am in love with -AMZN MSFT NVDA AMD CRWD OKTA, etc; I have really nothing to offer but bullishness! Only when a setup on these is strong enough do I actually post (AMD for example, didn't post AMZN - seems like everyone on TV was already). Generally I am always in a rush to share something that I don't have a bias on as I will provide a more neutral view; likewise, I love to post short positions on stocks I love as it works as an effective hedge & goes against my bias which I see as healthy (AAPL TSLA posts for example).
$SPOT is one of my rare long-but-I-dont-like-the-company posts. In other words, I don't like SPOT - I don't use it, and previously I HATED their business model. Previously, that is. The music business is not as profitable as they would like it to be, and so they diversify to podcasts. This I like. The difference here is that with podcasts they are licensing the IP with direct deals to podcasters. This is somewhat akin to $SPOT's strategy in music that really didn't work (IMO). Their strategy was to provide a ML music discovery platform so that individual artists can scale up on their platform (rather than the big labels so they can cut the middle man out). This didn't work however - for whatever reason they can't get away from licensing the big artists from the big labels that want big $$ for those rights.
Compare this now to signing Joe Rogan & Michelle Obama to $NFLX style deals; yes, I am saying that $SPOT has changed their business model away from attempting some kind of grassroots move away from music labels to PUMPING capital into podcasts with a $NFLX "license-the-content-to-get-the-users" style. Take out debt for free, spend the cash on acquiring valuable IP, and milk that IP with customer acquisition and ad sales over the life of it. It works.
Ok - so none of this is technical and thus really not actionable for me. Perhaps some fun info for those to disagree with me on - I love a good disagreement! The technicals, however, look fantastic here. You have a rounding bottom pullback, daily squeeze momentum turning up & entering a strong squeeze, and strong channel support. I am looking to go long $SPOT and would love to add more if I can get a dip below $260. I managed to enter this over the week and believe this pattern will complete over the month and bring $SPOT back above $300.
Here's a view of the 30min - lines are clearer:
$SPOT is one of my rare long-but-I-dont-like-the-company posts. In other words, I don't like SPOT - I don't use it, and previously I HATED their business model. Previously, that is. The music business is not as profitable as they would like it to be, and so they diversify to podcasts. This I like. The difference here is that with podcasts they are licensing the IP with direct deals to podcasters. This is somewhat akin to $SPOT's strategy in music that really didn't work (IMO). Their strategy was to provide a ML music discovery platform so that individual artists can scale up on their platform (rather than the big labels so they can cut the middle man out). This didn't work however - for whatever reason they can't get away from licensing the big artists from the big labels that want big $$ for those rights.
Compare this now to signing Joe Rogan & Michelle Obama to $NFLX style deals; yes, I am saying that $SPOT has changed their business model away from attempting some kind of grassroots move away from music labels to PUMPING capital into podcasts with a $NFLX "license-the-content-to-get-the-users" style. Take out debt for free, spend the cash on acquiring valuable IP, and milk that IP with customer acquisition and ad sales over the life of it. It works.
Ok - so none of this is technical and thus really not actionable for me. Perhaps some fun info for those to disagree with me on - I love a good disagreement! The technicals, however, look fantastic here. You have a rounding bottom pullback, daily squeeze momentum turning up & entering a strong squeeze, and strong channel support. I am looking to go long $SPOT and would love to add more if I can get a dip below $260. I managed to enter this over the week and believe this pattern will complete over the month and bring $SPOT back above $300.
Here's a view of the 30min - lines are clearer:
Comment:
Been a choppy one but looks like we're almost through it