There appears to be a growing consensus of belief, that the pandemic virus ,
attacking the United States now," will peak" around early summer,in absolute terms,
and then eventually work its way out of our system' by the later this year.
Unfortunately,that consensus belief,in my view is highly underestimating
the human and economic destruction, that this virus will ultimately cause in this country.
My own view, outlined below, reflects a simple belief that it will become impossible
to return to life as perceived normal,for almost an"indefinite"period of time...
The long term human/economic damage, and suffering that this will cause in the United States
may rival that of the great Depression of the 1930's, after the stock market crashed in 1929.
If hundred of thousand die from the virus as the CDC model suggests
our hospital system in the US could easily become overwhelmed,as it is now occurring in New York where I live.
There will be a choices made as to who gets to live, or die.
The lockdown of homes and businesses across this country will only grow in magnitude as time passes.
Our unemployment rate could approach 20%,the economic growth in the US will turn strikingly negative,
falling off a cliff in the process.
There is a current spin mainly held I believe for acute political gain,
that this will only be "temporary dislocation" that somehow people will soon stop dying
and that our economy roaring back,prior to the Presidential Election this fall
.
Along with that theory, is that the stock market,the wealth machine for this country
will come roaring back,going on to make new highs, later this year or next
That thetime is to "Buy" stocks in the most undervalued companies is now.
My own opinion is that this theory is highly delusional.
There could be no school this fall for colleges and universities, unless it's done online
No Pro football games this fall. no World Series No Olympics and,no public campaigning for President of the United States
No public gatherings for church worship on Sunday,or concerts or plays on Broadway this fall.
Demand for public transportation, as in cars, trucks and airline flights will, dry up as is happening right now,
Hour long traffic jams in major cities could soon become a thing of the past, because there will be anyone out there.
Trips to the grocery store, will become "online store purchase"s only
if you can find it," and if it's not out of stock, and "we have no idea if or when, it will be back in stock,
that will become the new business model, in almost everything we do.
This is not a science fiction movie, or a worst case scenario,
Rather it is a realistic possibility of what life will become,
until there is a cure for this virus, or a vaccine becomes widely available to everyone nationwide.
Our lives will become a "virtual" reality,
with online work/school/ personal now conducted from sheltered homes,and businesses.
"Social distancing", the buzzword phrase of this crisis,will become "the" new way of life.
The only thing that will stop this devastation is some kind of "miracle cure "or vaccination against the virus.
There are currently over 200 companies worldwide working the cure.
I am an optimist by nature,a believer that all that is good triumphs over evil.
.
But in this case, until a real cure is made,
we shall all continue to be held hostage to the destructions of our basic ways of life.
And unfortunately..,that is only the beginning.
THE_UNWIND
4/4/20
State of New York
attacking the United States now," will peak" around early summer,in absolute terms,
and then eventually work its way out of our system' by the later this year.
Unfortunately,that consensus belief,in my view is highly underestimating
the human and economic destruction, that this virus will ultimately cause in this country.
My own view, outlined below, reflects a simple belief that it will become impossible
to return to life as perceived normal,for almost an"indefinite"period of time...
The long term human/economic damage, and suffering that this will cause in the United States
may rival that of the great Depression of the 1930's, after the stock market crashed in 1929.
If hundred of thousand die from the virus as the CDC model suggests
our hospital system in the US could easily become overwhelmed,as it is now occurring in New York where I live.
There will be a choices made as to who gets to live, or die.
The lockdown of homes and businesses across this country will only grow in magnitude as time passes.
Our unemployment rate could approach 20%,the economic growth in the US will turn strikingly negative,
falling off a cliff in the process.
There is a current spin mainly held I believe for acute political gain,
that this will only be "temporary dislocation" that somehow people will soon stop dying
and that our economy roaring back,prior to the Presidential Election this fall
.
Along with that theory, is that the stock market,the wealth machine for this country
will come roaring back,going on to make new highs, later this year or next
That thetime is to "Buy" stocks in the most undervalued companies is now.
My own opinion is that this theory is highly delusional.
There could be no school this fall for colleges and universities, unless it's done online
No Pro football games this fall. no World Series No Olympics and,no public campaigning for President of the United States
No public gatherings for church worship on Sunday,or concerts or plays on Broadway this fall.
Demand for public transportation, as in cars, trucks and airline flights will, dry up as is happening right now,
Hour long traffic jams in major cities could soon become a thing of the past, because there will be anyone out there.
Trips to the grocery store, will become "online store purchase"s only
if you can find it," and if it's not out of stock, and "we have no idea if or when, it will be back in stock,
that will become the new business model, in almost everything we do.
This is not a science fiction movie, or a worst case scenario,
Rather it is a realistic possibility of what life will become,
until there is a cure for this virus, or a vaccine becomes widely available to everyone nationwide.
Our lives will become a "virtual" reality,
with online work/school/ personal now conducted from sheltered homes,and businesses.
"Social distancing", the buzzword phrase of this crisis,will become "the" new way of life.
The only thing that will stop this devastation is some kind of "miracle cure "or vaccination against the virus.
There are currently over 200 companies worldwide working the cure.
I am an optimist by nature,a believer that all that is good triumphs over evil.
.
But in this case, until a real cure is made,
we shall all continue to be held hostage to the destructions of our basic ways of life.
And unfortunately..,that is only the beginning.
THE_UNWIND
4/4/20
State of New York