LagunitaLLC

SPX (04/15/2020)- Bullish trend is pricing in

Short
SP:SPX   S&P 500 Index
FA
+The market has entered a new phase where all the good news became "pricing in". The key is the market has already reacted to positive news about coronavirus: Trump said the economy would be opened on May 1st, Covid-19 had slowed down. This set the stock 30% rally for the last few weeks. Same thing with reactions to negative news a month ago when people were selling off their stocks in fear that the COVID-19 would bring destruction to the economy and when the bad news were actually released.
Another evidence for this theory is when the FED announces massive stimulus 2.3 trillion dollars, stock only went up 1.2% last Thursday, instead of 10-15% rally. The oil production cut was thought to be much more bullish, however, it ended up bearish when released yesterday.
+The volatility is expected to be very small in this period.
+People are buying in the hope of Cov-19 recovery and the media supports this trend by reposting a lot of recovery news from different sources. What the media didn't focus too much on what will happen after the recovery: Sales won't likely be back to normal, very little profit. I think this is when the market will trigger another sell-off. It will take one or two weeks to actually happens. Until then, the stock won't make major moves.

TA
Stocks will likely down tomorrow, however, not significant.
Squeeze momentum 30m is setting up for a high volume movement. There will be a high possibility of open low, flat at closing.
Very small room for bullish as stocks are near the resistance line (green).
RSI is relatively bearish at this point.

Good luck
Comment:
I missed 1 sentence in FA. "When the bad news was actually released (unemployment claims), the market barely dropped, even bullish.
Comment:
A key level is now broken. Proceed to a sell-off
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