The developing Elliott wave Horizontal Triangle from SPX 2175.30 appears to be nearing completion.
The decline from 2154.80 - labeled "C" was very choppy and looks like a corrective wave. This decline also failed to break below important support at 2114.70. These to factors indicate that the drop from 2154.80 to 2119.40 is probably wave "D" of the Horizontal Triangle. The rally from 2119.40 is so far very choppy so its possible this rally could be a completed wave "E", a move below SPX 2114.70 would confirm the Horizontal Triangle is complete.
The size of the supposed wave "E" as of the close on 10/28/16 is tiny in comparison to the other waves, there could be more upside. There is a cluster of Fibonacci targets in the 2144 to 2145 area.
1) A .382 retrace of the move down from the all time high at 2193 to 2114 targets 2144.90
2) A .50 retrace from the start of the Horizontal Triangle at 2175 to 2114 targets 2145.00
3) A .618 retrace of wave "C" added to the wave "D" low at 2119.40 targets 2144.20
There are two Fibonacci time cycles targeting 11/1/16 (see my prior posts) a rally into 11/1/16 would make wave "E" more in proportion to the other waves.
After completion of the Horizontal Triangle there could be a very sharp break to the downside. Market breath has continued to deteriorate as the SPX goes sideways, many stocks are already in a bear market.
Minimum down side target is Brexit low at SPX 1991.
A more likely target is the double bottom made January - February in the low 1800 area.
Time target for a bottom is 11/9/16. I will have more comments on this scenario later.
Mark
The decline from 2154.80 - labeled "C" was very choppy and looks like a corrective wave. This decline also failed to break below important support at 2114.70. These to factors indicate that the drop from 2154.80 to 2119.40 is probably wave "D" of the Horizontal Triangle. The rally from 2119.40 is so far very choppy so its possible this rally could be a completed wave "E", a move below SPX 2114.70 would confirm the Horizontal Triangle is complete.
The size of the supposed wave "E" as of the close on 10/28/16 is tiny in comparison to the other waves, there could be more upside. There is a cluster of Fibonacci targets in the 2144 to 2145 area.
1) A .382 retrace of the move down from the all time high at 2193 to 2114 targets 2144.90
2) A .50 retrace from the start of the Horizontal Triangle at 2175 to 2114 targets 2145.00
3) A .618 retrace of wave "C" added to the wave "D" low at 2119.40 targets 2144.20
There are two Fibonacci time cycles targeting 11/1/16 (see my prior posts) a rally into 11/1/16 would make wave "E" more in proportion to the other waves.
After completion of the Horizontal Triangle there could be a very sharp break to the downside. Market breath has continued to deteriorate as the SPX goes sideways, many stocks are already in a bear market.
Minimum down side target is Brexit low at SPX 1991.
A more likely target is the double bottom made January - February in the low 1800 area.
Time target for a bottom is 11/9/16. I will have more comments on this scenario later.
Mark