chartwatchers
Long

STOCKS - why this is not a bear market?

INDEX:SPX   S&P 500 Index
350 2 14
8 months ago
In 2000 when we lost the 50 EMA price was not able to recover again above the 50 EMA.
IN 2008 we lost the 50 EMA and no recovery till the end of 2009.

And now we had a double recovery Oct             .2015 and Feb 2016.

If price wanted to start a bear market it had 2 chances. It couldn't start it.

Why? I don't know the reason...
USA elections ? - The Govt wants a flying stock market?
Central bank money printing? - The freshly printed money is going to the stock market?

But if we make a higher high those red points will have to close their shorts... And it's just Tradingview.
Most of the small investors are trying to short this market.

WHAT IF THEY ALL ARE WRONG AND WE BREAK TO NEW HIGHS ?!
8 months ago
Comment: TRadingview average was turned off...
Turn on the "light" sign next to the indicators
8 months ago
Comment: Today(07.04.2016.) we broke out from the DCL of oil and broke out the consolidation of biotech.
Now I'm 100% sure that S&P will test or break the all time highs in 2 months.
With the skyrocekting oil and biotech stocks simply cannot fall.
Nebula666
8 months ago
I definitely see the possible upside on the SPY 500... Although I am very doubtful of it becoming a fruition albeit a temporary one, if that. New highs then new lows? Lets make some $$$
Reply
TheBull
8 months ago
You have forgotten fundamental data o this, and you can not only rely on EMA. Second, have you compared with Small Cap Index like russell 2000 and why it is important to look at smaller indicies? If you look at European stock market most of them are underperforming and already some of them are in bear market. Russell 2000 for example has dropped 31,7% from its high. It moved up but currently is trading 14,7% from its high, and constantly making lower highs and lower low.

Third, the underlying factor of this recent movement is not based on fundamentals, rather on the momentum of Fed indecision. Fed has problems, and if it starts going to negative interest rate investors know that U.S economy has problems. You see, Fed speaks about full employment etc. But if you look at the deep of recent NFP-report you will notice that their are some sectors that are over performing in employment and other sectors are underperforming. The sectors that are performing well is on the service sector, while manufacturing has fallen. That is not good at all.

You wrote about central banks money printing. Yes, that moves market, however the downside on this function is that it creates a bubble since it is not based on fundamentals rather on speculation. If you look at rate of change over 4 different time sets you will notice that while SPX has taken new highs, Rate of Change 250 days for example has fallen dramatically. You have a divergence their.
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