When we lost the parabolic trend by losing the swing high to the prior ATH, I knew we were in trouble. When we fell below below the 11 year parabolic trend line, I felt that was confirmation we were heading for a capitulation. We then saw what appears to be an amazing recovery but my outlook remains the same, I feel like we are going to see a sell off.
When a bubble ends, we always see an attempt to regain. If a new all time high is not posted on that attempt to regain, then capitulation generally follows.
I normally don't care about fundamentals but I can't help but think the prices we are seeing right now are only being sustained because the $600 a week Federal unemployment boost. That comes to an end in a couple weeks unless something is done. What happens when unemployed Americans lost an extra $2,400 a month? For that matter, we will see a new fiscal year on July 1st. as well. Will we see more layoffs? How will this be reflected in stock prices?
I have been wrong before but when I look at this chart I see second chances. Second chances to get the hell out, or second chances to go short. I am very curious what the next few weeks have in store for us and I am curious what will happen when even more people cannot pay their debts. Even if they can go back to work, most will not be making what they were on unemployment. Do we print more money and create more illusions? How long can we do that before we have an inflation issue? Eventually this all has to come down, nothing does up forever, unfortunately that is what we think should happen but that is not realistic. Stay safe out there, and I don't just mean on your trades and investments either. There is a human cost to all this greed.
When a bubble ends, we always see an attempt to regain. If a new all time high is not posted on that attempt to regain, then capitulation generally follows.
I normally don't care about fundamentals but I can't help but think the prices we are seeing right now are only being sustained because the $600 a week Federal unemployment boost. That comes to an end in a couple weeks unless something is done. What happens when unemployed Americans lost an extra $2,400 a month? For that matter, we will see a new fiscal year on July 1st. as well. Will we see more layoffs? How will this be reflected in stock prices?
I have been wrong before but when I look at this chart I see second chances. Second chances to get the hell out, or second chances to go short. I am very curious what the next few weeks have in store for us and I am curious what will happen when even more people cannot pay their debts. Even if they can go back to work, most will not be making what they were on unemployment. Do we print more money and create more illusions? How long can we do that before we have an inflation issue? Eventually this all has to come down, nothing does up forever, unfortunately that is what we think should happen but that is not realistic. Stay safe out there, and I don't just mean on your trades and investments either. There is a human cost to all this greed.