BLUF: 100% G-Fund
I sat out this current wave and until I see a more definitive picture, I will also sit out this next move until I see more validity of Mr. Markets direction. The market either continues up this week or retraces back down. The SPX has to break the last high of 2893, hold and goes higher this week before retracing for a second wave thrust or it collapses back down...TBD! So the two options are in different colors.
I will stay in the G until I see more definitive waves and trends for future decisions, continue to watch the macro data come in every week which is looking moderately week but not recession material and the narratives driving market sentiment (Tradwar/s and the FED).
Rate Cuts: I do not think the Fed will cut rates in June but there is a good probability they start in July given what the data continues to tell them...if they wait until SEP, the markets will not like that and more than likely have a pretty good pullback similar to Dec18. TBD!
Future Narrative Events: 17-18 June FOMC meeting with outcome announced on Friday 21June and then 28-29June G20 meeting in Japan, look for an positive spin tweet by Mr. T but no definitive solution until the end of 2019, he will wait until the FED drops rates, stops normalization process and potentially starts another round of QE type of activities (Adding liquidity), then he makes his grand announcement with one tweet driving the markets to all new time highs going into 2020 election time!!! Cold beer bet right now, that's how it plays out!!! TBD!!!
***We are always one tweet away from a up or down day in the market...Adapt or Die! Have a great summer...I am!
I sat out this current wave and until I see a more definitive picture, I will also sit out this next move until I see more validity of Mr. Markets direction. The market either continues up this week or retraces back down. The SPX has to break the last high of 2893, hold and goes higher this week before retracing for a second wave thrust or it collapses back down...TBD! So the two options are in different colors.
I will stay in the G until I see more definitive waves and trends for future decisions, continue to watch the macro data come in every week which is looking moderately week but not recession material and the narratives driving market sentiment (Tradwar/s and the FED).
Rate Cuts: I do not think the Fed will cut rates in June but there is a good probability they start in July given what the data continues to tell them...if they wait until SEP, the markets will not like that and more than likely have a pretty good pullback similar to Dec18. TBD!
Future Narrative Events: 17-18 June FOMC meeting with outcome announced on Friday 21June and then 28-29June G20 meeting in Japan, look for an positive spin tweet by Mr. T but no definitive solution until the end of 2019, he will wait until the FED drops rates, stops normalization process and potentially starts another round of QE type of activities (Adding liquidity), then he makes his grand announcement with one tweet driving the markets to all new time highs going into 2020 election time!!! Cold beer bet right now, that's how it plays out!!! TBD!!!
***We are always one tweet away from a up or down day in the market...Adapt or Die! Have a great summer...I am!
Comment:
This bounce just cannot get past the 2890-2900 resistance...looks like it will pullback and either make a second bounce ivo Fed Meeting Press Conf on Friday, 21 June. This might be the MOST watched/listened to FOMC meeting conference is in quite some time...if you think the Fed is going to do everything the futures/bond market is predicting...I have something to sale you! A big ole turd-sandwich! Please maintain your BS meter, keep a reserve and be ready! Have a great summer! Adapt or Die!
Comment: