Market continues to outline the shape for long term expectations. The important area is at hand above 2800 with two remaining important peaks to surpass. January 2018 and September 2018 are the last hurdles for this momentous move since 12/26/18. At present we're in the area of .764 retracement from September's high to December's low. Surpassing .886 in the area of January's high is important for the bulls. That event and remaining above the 200d sma are critical for further advance, with added comfort once 50d sma crosses 200d from below. Above that is the next high Fibonacci level at 3600+ for long term targeting.
The bear case rests on failure at the two previous highs and potential for correction of the entire move since 2009. The December correction was appropriately in the area of 21% magnitude of the 2/2016 advance. The correction of the 2009 move should be of magnitude 34%, whether it happens here or after the 3600 peak is approached.
Great watching this unfold with no compelling reason to position strongly. Either outcome is of major circumstance with Cycle degree implications off the Global Financial Crisis low. Primary read remains as previous, with alternate path always under assessment.
The use of a weekly chart this week amplifies the divergence by major indicators (MACD, PPO, RSI) all showing downward slopes suggesting caution. Break or confirmation of those trends will assist with assessing direction.
The bear case rests on failure at the two previous highs and potential for correction of the entire move since 2009. The December correction was appropriately in the area of 21% magnitude of the 2/2016 advance. The correction of the 2009 move should be of magnitude 34%, whether it happens here or after the 3600 peak is approached.
Great watching this unfold with no compelling reason to position strongly. Either outcome is of major circumstance with Cycle degree implications off the Global Financial Crisis low. Primary read remains as previous, with alternate path always under assessment.
The use of a weekly chart this week amplifies the divergence by major indicators (MACD, PPO, RSI) all showing downward slopes suggesting caution. Break or confirmation of those trends will assist with assessing direction.