* Retail sales increase 1.3% in October
* Core retail sales rise 0.7%; September sales revised up
* Import prices fall for fourth straight month
* Manufacturing output rises 0.1%; prior months revised down
U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in October as households stepped up purchases of motor vehicles and a range of other goods, suggesting consumer spending picked up early in the fourth quarter, which could help to support the economy. The solid retail sales reported by the Commerce Department on Wednesday and signs of a slowdown in inflation raised cautious optimism the economy could avoid an anticipated recession next year or experience only a mild downturn.
Yesterday's trade was mixed and reflected some normal consolidation efforts along with some festering concerns about the economic outlook. In my opinion, just a slow pace "grandma" correction as what we expected yesterday.
Chart 1.1
As chart 1.1 shows, as what we expected yesterday, market moving narraw range around 3950-4000 level, and hardly hold up 3950ish before market close.
Chart 1.2
For today, I think pre-market gap will be filled and 3950ish might lose and might test 3920ish level. Since, I am waiting EMAs catching up, so possibly do nothing.
And next week will be more tradable compare to this week, next week poses a challenge as it will feature the release of the FOMC Minutes on Nov. 23. The release could leave traders reaching for shorter-dated puts heading into the news. The FOMC minutes are already starting to be priced in, as noted by the bump higher in implied volatility on that date. The market's "general" view since the CPI report is that the Fed would likely not need to be as aggressive with rate hikes as previously believed because inflation rates are cooling. That makes it a possible risk for the markets heading into the release of those minutes should they read more hawkish than expected.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
* Core retail sales rise 0.7%; September sales revised up
* Import prices fall for fourth straight month
* Manufacturing output rises 0.1%; prior months revised down
U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in October as households stepped up purchases of motor vehicles and a range of other goods, suggesting consumer spending picked up early in the fourth quarter, which could help to support the economy. The solid retail sales reported by the Commerce Department on Wednesday and signs of a slowdown in inflation raised cautious optimism the economy could avoid an anticipated recession next year or experience only a mild downturn.
Yesterday's trade was mixed and reflected some normal consolidation efforts along with some festering concerns about the economic outlook. In my opinion, just a slow pace "grandma" correction as what we expected yesterday.
As chart 1.1 shows, as what we expected yesterday, market moving narraw range around 3950-4000 level, and hardly hold up 3950ish before market close.
For today, I think pre-market gap will be filled and 3950ish might lose and might test 3920ish level. Since, I am waiting EMAs catching up, so possibly do nothing.
And next week will be more tradable compare to this week, next week poses a challenge as it will feature the release of the FOMC Minutes on Nov. 23. The release could leave traders reaching for shorter-dated puts heading into the news. The FOMC minutes are already starting to be priced in, as noted by the bump higher in implied volatility on that date. The market's "general" view since the CPI report is that the Fed would likely not need to be as aggressive with rate hikes as previously believed because inflation rates are cooling. That makes it a possible risk for the markets heading into the release of those minutes should they read more hawkish than expected.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.