Downside risk for the Trump rally

The downside risk is increasing more and more. I have several sell signals already since a few days, but I was waiting for more confirmation from the price. Today's intra-day price action was very bearish with a move higher after the spot open which got rejected and sold off down below 2165 points. Here are arguments for and against a short:

Bearish: Former leaders of the Trump rally started to decline. The Russel 2000 index, the Dow Jones index and bank stocks

Bullish: The market sentiment is now mostly bearish, which is most of the time a contrarian indicator.

Short entry: 2265-2275
Target: 2250-2245
Stop loss: 2275


(I'm currently writing the description, please come back in 15 minutes to see my update).

The market is starting to confirm the bearish outlook for February 2017, which I made six months ago:

Comment:

The S&P 500 closed Thursday, January 19, 2017 one day before the inauguration of Donald Trump at 2263.69, and therefore below the open price of 2271.90. The close of 2263.69 with +0.34 points is barely above the low of the day before (the low of Wednesday, January 18, 2017 was 2263.35).

The index moved higher after the open up to 2274.33, but then sellers smacked the price back down to 2258.41 before the index recovered only a little until the spot market closed. This could also turn out to be a bear trap, though.

The DOW Jones Industrial Average DJIA closed lower again:

The laggard of the Trump rally - the Nasdaq Composite - closed lower. Which means this index has the largest downside risk to decline more on Friday, January 20, 2017 compared to the other markets, which already fell more the last days.

Russel 2000, the strongest index leader of the Trump rally closed higher, which means bulls have still the odds in their favor with stocks in this index.

Comment:

The Dow Jones broke 20,000 points today. This means back to my two months old idea: