And here we are again just below a long term trend line.
Weather market is paying attention to this long term trend line or not, we have benn bouncing up and down, below and above levels of this long term uptrend for a while now.
But it seams like there is smaller and smaller willingness to rise.
Trading volume on SPY yesterday was -27.2% of typical day and you one can interpret it in 2 ways:
a) there was not much selling on a red day,
b) there is not much conviction for the market to grow any further.
Everyone seems to be waiting for Friday's Powell speech, just it was some kind of remedy and FED has a magic wand that will make all bad things disappear.
Today we going to have FED minutes that might set the tone for a trading day.
Not many people seems to be paying attention to the events in Italy, were new government will be forming and there is high risk it might take a while to settle things down. No one seems to be looking at Brexit anymore even though there is a looming deadline.
As to the market:
One a daily chart we have still some room for further growth and we might see investors take advantage of a 1 day slip to bring the market to higher levels. At this resistance levels are located at 2914, 2940 (this one is a key resistance level) and 2965. Highly doubt we will get above 2940. Look for volume confirmation.
Although I'm trying not to be biased my outlook is bearish.
FED might disappoint since there are no signs of slowing economy and data for the US in last few readings was strong, they do not have a case to announce stronger cuts.
On the other hand if you compare current economic data with historic values before 2008 it look very similar.
There are usually no strong signs of slowing economy before it get really bad.
Yield curve inversion is much better predictor of incoming tsunami although it might take another 8-12 months to see anything in macro data.
I will be looking for shorts at 2940 levels if there is no volume confirmation.
Weather market is paying attention to this long term trend line or not, we have benn bouncing up and down, below and above levels of this long term uptrend for a while now.
But it seams like there is smaller and smaller willingness to rise.
Trading volume on SPY yesterday was -27.2% of typical day and you one can interpret it in 2 ways:
a) there was not much selling on a red day,
b) there is not much conviction for the market to grow any further.
Everyone seems to be waiting for Friday's Powell speech, just it was some kind of remedy and FED has a magic wand that will make all bad things disappear.
Today we going to have FED minutes that might set the tone for a trading day.
Not many people seems to be paying attention to the events in Italy, were new government will be forming and there is high risk it might take a while to settle things down. No one seems to be looking at Brexit anymore even though there is a looming deadline.
As to the market:
One a daily chart we have still some room for further growth and we might see investors take advantage of a 1 day slip to bring the market to higher levels. At this resistance levels are located at 2914, 2940 (this one is a key resistance level) and 2965. Highly doubt we will get above 2940. Look for volume confirmation.
Although I'm trying not to be biased my outlook is bearish.
FED might disappoint since there are no signs of slowing economy and data for the US in last few readings was strong, they do not have a case to announce stronger cuts.
On the other hand if you compare current economic data with historic values before 2008 it look very similar.
There are usually no strong signs of slowing economy before it get really bad.
Yield curve inversion is much better predictor of incoming tsunami although it might take another 8-12 months to see anything in macro data.
I will be looking for shorts at 2940 levels if there is no volume confirmation.
