So far we are following expected pattern.
Breakout below lower bound of ascending channel, entrancement and back to support.
If we will break below 2055 with confirmed volumen there is a long free fall ahead of us, with lots of volatility and turning points. It's not going to be a smooth ride down, but direction will be clear.
For the past several days we have been swinging back and forth in market consolidation.
Swing moves were dictated buy headline news coming form all over the place starting at Jackson Hole to G7 summit.
But overall thinks did change much.
- yield curve inverted again, more permanently then before,
- weakening economic data flow to the market form more places
Just as expected, although with lots of volatility and emotions we are back to square one - 2843 level.
Currently market moves according to a international quarrels. China dose that, US does something else and we swing up an down. In addition there are strong worries on German economy, Brexit, Hong Kong and what seems to be the background theme (incredibly...
And here we are again just below a long term trend line.
Weather market is paying attention to this long term trend line or not, we have benn bouncing up and down, below and above levels of this long term uptrend for a while now.
But it seams like there is smaller and smaller willingness to rise.
Trading volume on SPY yesterday was -27.2% of typical day and...
For the last few sessions market has been building a stairs.
First 2 steps are already there, so most of the market expect investors to start climbing up. As I mentioned yesterday, several countries announced same sort of stimulus for a local economies and that includes China and Germany.
Are the incoming news positive?
In my opinion they are NOT. Might seem...
As I mentioned few days ago market did take advantage of both:
short term oversold conditions
and went up to previously indicated range to finish on Friday at 2888. All inline with a plan.
Looking at S&P 1H chart there is still room for the market to go up.
Problems might come once we reach 2910-2915 where several resistance lines are located:...
With German DAX up 0,7% and US market futures in green FW20 shows relative weakness today.
Instead of expected recovery to 2110 levels we are slowly sliding lower and lower today.
If global sentiment will worsen during the day, further decline would be expected.
Otherwise at some point in the afternoon we might see some more buying in play and market return...
After few days of swing dancing we are back again we are back just above 38,2% fibo.
Markets moves according to news and most of the participants seems to be very confused.
Mr. P’s tweets lost its power yesterday and market focused at more fundamental important data like state of economy, yields and earning reports.
And here is a puzzle. Some of them flash...
With market closed in Poland yesterday we have missed on lots of mood swings on the global markets just to land in about the same place as Wednesday.
Expecting an open around the same levels (2081) +/- 10 pt and based on a global sentiment there is a chance for a small recovery.
2111 should be easily within a reach.
While trading futures is usually a short term play or swing dance it's worth to look at current levels form broader perspective.
If current support level (2090) will not hold (very likely) ther is just one final support at 2054 before we approach an abyss.
With yield curve inverted in the US and UK for the first time in a long time, poor state of German and...
Yesterday rally was incredibly emotional and dum.
I would argue if the whole move up was generated by news trading algos, since it took less then an hour to get all the way up but that was it.
Today as expected everyone will come to their senses and remember where we are and what is an underlying macroeconomic and fundamental data is telling us for a while.
Everyone seems to already forgotten yesterdays news and great emotional rally.
It looks like it was great place to open shorts.
Heading toward lows with a high probability to confirm a consistent downtrend, unless another tweet or piece of news will warm up Wall Street today.
Tariffs and trade war is all over today's news.
Question is - how long will it last?
I would argue if this emotional upswing will last long.
Take a caution before you jump this train. IT might dry out quickly.
With 2900 level gone market just confirmed it's weakness.
Yesterday we finished just above 50% fibo and with more and more bad news coming anxiety grows.
News headlines are not giving us much hope: Argentina just crushed. Chinese military vehicles gathering along the Hong Kong border.
I assume there is still a chance for retracement to ~2900 level today, but...
Over the last few weeks, we’ve seen a correction due to several reasons:
* a tweet that more tariffs would hit China,
* a tweet that restrictions would return on Huawei,
* oversold market conditions
* and technically extreme extension of the market above the 200-dma.
We have laso seen a few rebounds on:
* a tweet of a september trade deal,
* news that the...