I also mentioned that this easy money will probably continue for the short term(months), as economic conditions have weakened recently, while the FED is in a transitional phase. And that would support markets for the short coming period. However, the FED will eventually start to withdraw, for one of two reasons, either economic conditions stabilize, or forced by financial instability concerns(expanding the bubble in bonds further). In both cases, yields will spike, and this speculative cycle will reverse.
Some would argue that historically, markets aren't over-valued, prices are at normal levels. According to goldman sachs research, four valuation methods suggest the S&P500 is overvalued at current levels.
Technically speaking, I plotted a 36-month long term , a with two averages above or below by 25 percent.The average tended to confine price most of the time, while in some cases, extreme swings towards the upper and lower bands occurs, which indicates excessive bullishness or bearishness, resulting from unusual market conditions driven by bubbles in certain areas in the economy,
I am not saying that we shouldn't participate and gain from these trends, but common sense suggests that there is no real rational reason behind this rally but the excess of liquidity, so watch out and Keep Safe :).
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My targets will depend on where the top should be but i can easily see 165 and after 160, although we might get some bounce before the second target. I think one of the best signs out there is to watch 1-yields and 2-gold prices during this FOMC week, and on daily basis watch the 3-VIX, above 14 it's a sell and above 14.71 strong sell. this will certainly give you an idea on how the daily / week / month should close.
I have chosen to open a short position because of other reasons than just what we can see on daily chart.
Good luck and happy trading.
One more thing, the boundaries argument is a part of the overall proposed idea, it would be meaningless if separated from that context.