XBTFX

SPX: overbought side is close

SP:SPX   S&P 500 Index
S&P 500 had another short term rebound during the previous week. It was supported by the investors optimism coming from the jump in unemployment rate in the US. Namely, the current market paradox which neglects economic theory, is actually supported by the market expectations that the Fed will end the increase of interest rates, due to market developments which might impact inflation to finally enter into the 2% Fed`s range. The latest published US economic data showed that the unemployment reached 3.8% in August, higher from the market estimate of 3.5%. This was an indication that the Fed`s previous measures are coming to realization at the job market. However, there are both analysts and economists which are skeptical that these figures might indicate further Fed`s moves, and that some precaution is necessary, considering that the market would need to be aligned with real economic data in the future period. At the same time, the CME Group report showed that traders are anticipating a 93% chance that the Fed will hold interest rates at September`s meeting.

S&P 500 was moving in a range from 4.361 up to 4.540. The level of 4.500 has been tested during the week, without strength to sustain higher levels. The index is ending the week at the level of 4.515. The market sentiment continues to be mixed. The RSI is showing that the market is still looking at the overbought side, however, selling orders are emerging. In this sense, it could be expected for the market to continue to test the 4.500 level at the beginning of the week ahead. Still, the highest level from July this year, continues to be under question. A short reversal during the week might lead the index back to the 4.450 level. A move toward 4.600 is unlikely at this moment on the charts.

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