So far, the idea from 11 months back (www.tradingview.com/...n-the-path-traveled/) has unfortunately proven to play out, to the pain of many.
How much pain could be left in the cryptoverse if the S&P analog from 2008 continues to play out? Unfortunately, a lot.
S&P ATH to Lehman day was >25% off highs, about a year later. Following Lehman, the resulting fall was a 40%+ fall from prices at that time.
Meanwhile today, BTC had seen about 75% off highs before FTX. Will we see another 40%+ drop from here, to take us down to ~10,600? As the contagion spreads, and liquidations happen, it is not hard to imagine.
Don't forget the macro backdrop either -- it amazes me how spun up everyone is around anticipating the end of interest rate hikes and how ready the market is to look beyond that, while everyone ignores the pressure that ongoing QT will continue to inflict.
Be careful out there!
How much pain could be left in the cryptoverse if the S&P analog from 2008 continues to play out? Unfortunately, a lot.
S&P ATH to Lehman day was >25% off highs, about a year later. Following Lehman, the resulting fall was a 40%+ fall from prices at that time.
Meanwhile today, BTC had seen about 75% off highs before FTX. Will we see another 40%+ drop from here, to take us down to ~10,600? As the contagion spreads, and liquidations happen, it is not hard to imagine.
Don't forget the macro backdrop either -- it amazes me how spun up everyone is around anticipating the end of interest rate hikes and how ready the market is to look beyond that, while everyone ignores the pressure that ongoing QT will continue to inflict.
Be careful out there!