My S&P 500 predictions are as follows.
6 months: $3705.00, -3.77%
12 months: $3905.00, +1.43%
18 months: $4108.00, +6.70%
24 months: $4320.00, +12.20%
I believe there could be fluctuations as high as $4400 and as low as $3400 in the next 24 months, but I think there will be major resistance near $4400 and major support near the previous February 2020 high of around $3400.
The stock market is due for a correction. I firmly believe that the bull market since march has been completely falsified by government stimulus. The S&P 500 was up 64%+ from March 23 to September 2 of 2020, and again up 16% from election day to now. Of course, the fed did not want retirees to be cashing out 401ks at 0% gains since 2017, however the stimulus seems to be more aggressive than necessary. With unemployment high and businesses struggling, the government has continued to incur immense expenses, and the markets are way beyond “recovery”, up 15% since the high in February of 2020.
Sectors to bet against:
Social media and big data I believe is a sector that could experience some heavier regulation in the coming months, especially because of Google’s feud with Australia, insurrection incited via Twitter, and Facebook constantly in court for anti-trust. With the plummet of Alibaba since October, and the Biden and Trump administrations’ similar policies toward China, I also think it is safe to bet against Chinese stocks in the next 12-24 months. Finally, the green sectors I think will be strong for the next 24+ months, including green energy and cannabis. The socially liberal atmosphere in the US could lead to further legalization of marijuana and federal subsidization of green energy as opposed to coal plants and other outdated forms of energy that conservative administrations would support in order to maintain jobs.
What else am I buying, selling, holding, shorting?
Buy green energy and cannabis. Sell anything in the oil/fossil fuel sector. Hold the EV sector, including NIO, despite my prediction of a fall in Chinese stocks. I am currently shorting the overall market index with a small percentage of my portfolio, in order to hedge against the correction predicted in the next 6-12 months.
This was a finance class assignment, and I am mostly publishing this so I can look back at it later, however I do still appreciate any feedback or other ideas
6 months: $3705.00, -3.77%
12 months: $3905.00, +1.43%
18 months: $4108.00, +6.70%
24 months: $4320.00, +12.20%
I believe there could be fluctuations as high as $4400 and as low as $3400 in the next 24 months, but I think there will be major resistance near $4400 and major support near the previous February 2020 high of around $3400.
The stock market is due for a correction. I firmly believe that the bull market since march has been completely falsified by government stimulus. The S&P 500 was up 64%+ from March 23 to September 2 of 2020, and again up 16% from election day to now. Of course, the fed did not want retirees to be cashing out 401ks at 0% gains since 2017, however the stimulus seems to be more aggressive than necessary. With unemployment high and businesses struggling, the government has continued to incur immense expenses, and the markets are way beyond “recovery”, up 15% since the high in February of 2020.
Sectors to bet against:
Social media and big data I believe is a sector that could experience some heavier regulation in the coming months, especially because of Google’s feud with Australia, insurrection incited via Twitter, and Facebook constantly in court for anti-trust. With the plummet of Alibaba since October, and the Biden and Trump administrations’ similar policies toward China, I also think it is safe to bet against Chinese stocks in the next 12-24 months. Finally, the green sectors I think will be strong for the next 24+ months, including green energy and cannabis. The socially liberal atmosphere in the US could lead to further legalization of marijuana and federal subsidization of green energy as opposed to coal plants and other outdated forms of energy that conservative administrations would support in order to maintain jobs.
What else am I buying, selling, holding, shorting?
Buy green energy and cannabis. Sell anything in the oil/fossil fuel sector. Hold the EV sector, including NIO, despite my prediction of a fall in Chinese stocks. I am currently shorting the overall market index with a small percentage of my portfolio, in order to hedge against the correction predicted in the next 6-12 months.
This was a finance class assignment, and I am mostly publishing this so I can look back at it later, however I do still appreciate any feedback or other ideas