LagunitaLLC
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SP500 (03/29/2020)- An Unpredictable Week?

SPCFD:SPX   S&P 500 Index
FA: It is getting harder to predict the movement of the current market. Everything is possible.
+Bullish side:
- Fed will step in when the market goes red and they won't stop until everything get back to normal. Basically, they are trying to prevent the market crash and combat recession by creating more opportunities for businesses to grow larger. However, they are spending too much in a short period of time: cutting rate by almost 1.25% in a month period, trillions of dollars pumped in the market for loans and securities (this increase their balance sheet up to 5.3 trillion). Their balance sheet can be increased by up to 10 trillion by the end of June (at this rate).
- People with cash who wants to invest: This can make up to 30% of the market as they want to buy stocks at a low price. So many people say the market had its bottom and it's going up.
-Vaccine for Covid-19 soon to be released. Right now, the only thing is holding them back is elderly people (Testing the level of side effects, lethalities, immunities).
+Bearish side:
-Covid-19 is still killing and hurting businesses.
-Guidelines for Covid-19 is extended by 15 days (according to Trump).
-The time for Vaccine to be deployed is at least 3 months.
-US Debt bubble is reaching 26 trillion in a matter of weeks. With this, they will likely cut the spendings.
-Inflation is projected to be increased. However, with the current oil and energy price, it will not spike.
-Sales reported by small businesses are down 50%-70% during the past month.
-GDP will be expected to be negative in 2 consecutive quarters.
TA: RSI in the 45 minutes is still showing a selling trend.
+Scenario 1 (Normal market): stocks will be down 5% in the next 48 hours.
+Scenario 2 (Steered market): stocks will be lower at pre-market, however, it will continue to go up until the resistance line and eventually fall back. A long trend basically. In contrast, there will be a sudden crash in a short time.
VIX won't increase much.
Good luck.


Comments

Do you understand that?
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LagunitaLLC PerryWave
@PerryWave, I like that lol
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i dont understand: Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Mar) -70.0 and the SP IS GOING UP.....how it is possible? the COVID cases in USA has almost doubled in the last 5 days, but the indices are UP....WTF IS GOING ON?
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LagunitaLLC nataliaj2007