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Is the S&P 500 Nearing a Top for Now?

SP:SPX   S&P 500 Index
The S&P 500 has enjoyed a strong run with new 52-week highs for six straight sessions. But some traders may consider waiting for a pullback -- especially with the Federal Reserve meeting next week.

The first pattern on today’s chart is Wilder’s Relative Strength Index (RSI). It moved back above the overbought threshold of 70 this week. While frequent overbought readings can reflect a bullish market, they can also represent moments of overextension, like mid-June, early February and last August.

Second, prices have pushed above the top of the Keltner Channel. Some investors may prefer buying inside these bands.

Next, the bottom study includes our Distance from MA script. It shows SPX is almost 6 percent above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA). While not a record, this is also near the top of its long-term range.

Finally, Cboe’s volatility index (VIX) has held the February 2020 low of 13.38 all month. This may create the potential for a modest increase in fear and selling pressure in SPX. (See below.)

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