I've been looking at the weekly scale and trying to develop a framework from which to follow the S&P500 over the next year. Here is what I have:
Fib retracement from the low of March 2009 to the peak of October 2007. The May 2015 correction aligns perfectly with the 1.618 level. (I'm not the only one looking at this retracement plot.) The next major Fib level is 2.618 which corresponds to 3033. There also appears to be sentiment that the s&P500 can reach this level later this year among institutional investors (for whatever that's worth).
Zooming in on the past 2 years, the correction of January of this year began when the price moved well above its trend line. The correction has since stayed within the current trend lines. I've thrown an A-B-C correction and a 1-2-3-4-5 Elliot wave on there as an example of what I'm seeing (but no analysis has gone into the exact placement). The trend lines put the S&P500 hitting the 3033 level sometime between November 2018 and April 2019.
I see a "breakthrough" in trade talks with China as a significant factor that could propel us to the 3033 level. If we reach that point it will be time to re-evaluate the economic and political climate. At that point I could see a correction down to the lower trend line (red) and the 200-week moving average.
Comments/critiques welcomed.
Fib retracement from the low of March 2009 to the peak of October 2007. The May 2015 correction aligns perfectly with the 1.618 level. (I'm not the only one looking at this retracement plot.) The next major Fib level is 2.618 which corresponds to 3033. There also appears to be sentiment that the s&P500 can reach this level later this year among institutional investors (for whatever that's worth).
Zooming in on the past 2 years, the correction of January of this year began when the price moved well above its trend line. The correction has since stayed within the current trend lines. I've thrown an A-B-C correction and a 1-2-3-4-5 Elliot wave on there as an example of what I'm seeing (but no analysis has gone into the exact placement). The trend lines put the S&P500 hitting the 3033 level sometime between November 2018 and April 2019.
I see a "breakthrough" in trade talks with China as a significant factor that could propel us to the 3033 level. If we reach that point it will be time to re-evaluate the economic and political climate. At that point I could see a correction down to the lower trend line (red) and the 200-week moving average.
Comments/critiques welcomed.