Bounce from June low or Return to the channel from 2008-9?

Hello,

As always to my analysis, I cannot align myself to either bull or bear. Anyway. Here is my idea on SPX towards 2024.

After I've drawn upward trendlines from 2008-09 bottom and marking the bottom of RSI, I think SPX could bounce back at 3750 (Sep 2022) and test the record high towards 4800. This may be plausible because the market rallies after mid-term election (in the U.S.).

Of course the macro is cooling down and when the fundamentals are considered, the pricing of the each (many) equity is still historically expensive. With these regards, perhaps the market would move toward 3200 to make a good return to the rising channel from 2008.

Overall, FED has done terrific job to relief the damage from the pandemic. But maybe the monetary easing was little too much.

Thanks for reading!

I am not a professional but buy and hold investor. As many of you, I've lost quite a bit from the beginning of this year but anyways the journey continues.

Comment:

"After I've drawn upward trendlines from 2008-09 bottom and marking the bottom of RSI , I think SPX could bounce back at 3750 (Sep 2022) and test the record high towards 4800. This may be plausible because the market rallies after mid-term election (in the U.S.). "

To my phrasing above, I guess I have made nonsense mess that short - mid term perspective to my guess for 2023-24.