SP500 Short Opportunities (03/26/2020) -Part 2 , Please read
Just as we expected, the bills weren't official yet as Dem and Rep are fighting over. Here is the simple version of the conflict:
+ Dem is fighting over 2 things on the bills. First, the unemployment benefit (extra money/pension for jobless worker). Second: the job security: the employers can not fire or lay off their employees during this time, which also includes sick pay, unemployment insurance,... while receive aid funding from government. No stock buy back for corporations, just ensure them use the aid money wisely.
+ Rep: They don't go to the details and keep their perspectives, so that corporations can use the loan (500 billions) to do whatever they like in order to keep the economy going.
We think this fight will last about 1-2 days or even more.
Bad news for "bullish" team:
1. The unemployment claims (filed for unemployment benefit) will be released at 8:30 am Thursday, 03/26/2020. Fact: California governor has already reported their number, which will be above 1 million.
2. Fed will withdraw 45 billions from the market in the morning (45 billions). Then add money later (also 45 billions).
3. Most of the gains from the last two days are from Travel Sector (+36.93%), Oil and Gas (+23.75%), Hotel and Entertainment (+21,77%), Real Estate (+18.59%). Those numbers should be lower than expected as they are the most vulnerable sectors in real life.
4. Most of the loss are coming from essential businesses (-10% average). We have no clue why they decided to sell these stocks (Walmart, Costco, Walgreen,...).
5. Unemployment data will be released on Friday (03/27/2020).
Technical: RSI is at its peak, signal a sell. Squeeze momentum indicator has flag a sell.
Scenario 1 (Red): Stock will go straight down tomorrow.
Scenario 2 (Yellow): Stock will rally again until it touches the blue resistance line, could be after-hour, then it will drop.
Good luck.
+ Dem is fighting over 2 things on the bills. First, the unemployment benefit (extra money/pension for jobless worker). Second: the job security: the employers can not fire or lay off their employees during this time, which also includes sick pay, unemployment insurance,... while receive aid funding from government. No stock buy back for corporations, just ensure them use the aid money wisely.
+ Rep: They don't go to the details and keep their perspectives, so that corporations can use the loan (500 billions) to do whatever they like in order to keep the economy going.
We think this fight will last about 1-2 days or even more.
Bad news for "bullish" team:
1. The unemployment claims (filed for unemployment benefit) will be released at 8:30 am Thursday, 03/26/2020. Fact: California governor has already reported their number, which will be above 1 million.
2. Fed will withdraw 45 billions from the market in the morning (45 billions). Then add money later (also 45 billions).
3. Most of the gains from the last two days are from Travel Sector (+36.93%), Oil and Gas (+23.75%), Hotel and Entertainment (+21,77%), Real Estate (+18.59%). Those numbers should be lower than expected as they are the most vulnerable sectors in real life.
4. Most of the loss are coming from essential businesses (-10% average). We have no clue why they decided to sell these stocks (Walmart, Costco, Walgreen,...).
5. Unemployment data will be released on Friday (03/27/2020).
Technical: RSI is at its peak, signal a sell. Squeeze momentum indicator has flag a sell.
Scenario 1 (Red): Stock will go straight down tomorrow.
Scenario 2 (Yellow): Stock will rally again until it touches the blue resistance line, could be after-hour, then it will drop.
Good luck.
Comment:
Fake red candles, do not short yet!
Comment:
As soon as the stock hit the resistance line (blue) and go down. Short.
Comment:
It's time! Use 30% of buying power.