This is my first post here on tradingview. I usually do not post my ideas or views but this pattern builds in my head for a while now and would love to hear your feedback.
First, we are so off long term mean, that I keep thinking it is about time to reverse to the mean or test a very long-term trend line.
Second, although it is to early to say, but a huge head and shoulders could be building up.
Midterm we have few resistance levels on the way to build a full head, but it would help to keep this patter in the proper timeline.
Last but not least when I analyze macro data and future outlook I can see several key elements:
• We are in a very long bull run and global business cycle
• Some macro data is getting worse and some is not, at least not yet
• There is no reason for a further run at this stage, although momentum and sentiment was there just few days ago
• Dear Mr. President of the US is defiantly not helping much with his trade war tweets and attitude, but there will be a moment when he will pull out a bunny from his hat and announce an amazing new deal with China. This is going to happen either if market will correct too much or he will need to make himself a national hero before next election. So there is a case for a next shoulder up.
• Actual recession will eventually come, but we have at least another 12-18 months of things getting worse and better, worse and better. FED helping out, or not – after hearing Powell yesterday I could not help but think – these guys are clueless of what to do. Insurance cut? Just in case? What is this, agile procect management technique of stabilizing global economy?
• There are external factors – Brexit, EU economy in poor condition, EU Manufacturing PMI at it’s lowest levels for years. ECB trying to be a hearo with another easing programs to help economy. In China trade is not as usual, that affects manufacturing and entire economy. Soon we will see it in numbers even if they are usually cooked.
If you try to put all this on the timeline for next 12-18 months, I will argue that it might all support those big swings of sentiment and in the end we might bet something very close to this head and shoulders pattern.
Let me know what your crystal ball is telling you, and what do you think of my outlook.
First, we are so off long term mean, that I keep thinking it is about time to reverse to the mean or test a very long-term trend line.
Second, although it is to early to say, but a huge head and shoulders could be building up.
Midterm we have few resistance levels on the way to build a full head, but it would help to keep this patter in the proper timeline.
Last but not least when I analyze macro data and future outlook I can see several key elements:
• We are in a very long bull run and global business cycle
• Some macro data is getting worse and some is not, at least not yet
• There is no reason for a further run at this stage, although momentum and sentiment was there just few days ago
• Dear Mr. President of the US is defiantly not helping much with his trade war tweets and attitude, but there will be a moment when he will pull out a bunny from his hat and announce an amazing new deal with China. This is going to happen either if market will correct too much or he will need to make himself a national hero before next election. So there is a case for a next shoulder up.
• Actual recession will eventually come, but we have at least another 12-18 months of things getting worse and better, worse and better. FED helping out, or not – after hearing Powell yesterday I could not help but think – these guys are clueless of what to do. Insurance cut? Just in case? What is this, agile procect management technique of stabilizing global economy?
• There are external factors – Brexit, EU economy in poor condition, EU Manufacturing PMI at it’s lowest levels for years. ECB trying to be a hearo with another easing programs to help economy. In China trade is not as usual, that affects manufacturing and entire economy. Soon we will see it in numbers even if they are usually cooked.
If you try to put all this on the timeline for next 12-18 months, I will argue that it might all support those big swings of sentiment and in the end we might bet something very close to this head and shoulders pattern.
Let me know what your crystal ball is telling you, and what do you think of my outlook.