The $NYSI, Summation Index has been losing momentum since the middle of last week. It rose to 1050 last Friday, the 7th, and today it dropped by a couple of points. It's not uncommon for the Summation Index to turn when it pushes above 1000 and if it is in fact turning then is weakening and when that happens the market will often pull back. Further, when the market starts to lose underlying strength, you don't need a catalyst to turn the market as the market will often fall of its own weight.
The fell by 800pts today when the $NYA dropped by only 25pts. On Friday, the 7th, the fell by 493pts when the $NYA fell only 13pts. Like the Summation Index, the is hinting at underlying weakness.
This pattern and these two signs of weakness need to be monitored over the next few sessions. They can easily right themselves, but if they don't by the end of the week, then this has to be seen as a red flag warning.
IMHO, of course, and subject to change without notice.
A more harmful occurrence would have been a stalled break slightly above upper channel which probably would have precipitated a correction below lower channel.
VIX 5 EMA does not indicate a rally peak, although MACD and RSI seem to be cresting. The SPX is also in contending with upper channel resistance on the 5 year, 2 1/2 year , and 1 year charts, as I have diagrammed previously. Ultimately, the 1 year upper channel will most likley be in the 2000 range by mid-year, and 2100 by year end. 2035 represents year-end 1 year mid-channel and a 10% gain for the year. I see that as the likely end point, probabilities being what they are.
Thanks once again for your open analysis - Glenn