I published this chart before, this is the revised version with better illustration. It is a correlation study between 5 year treasury rate and SP 500, using simple projection. It suggests rate could peak around May 2015 at 3 percent, and market could peak May 2016 around 2250. Fundamentally, the Fed low rate and easy policy is still in play and the US economy still improving (though many believe this is just a perception rather than reality), it is quite possible we are in the last leg of the market that could rise another 30% after the current correction (assuming we are in a correction right now and bottom around 1700, (2250 - 1700)/1700 = 32.35%. Time will tell. This chart intends to give you some fun (and hopefully some thoughts) rather than presenting a fact (I believe most viewers can tell :)
Nice chart and thoughts. I don't think we will get any correction this year though. I know it seems crazy but I think the S&P will continue to make a rising wedge and actually break it to the UPSIDE. Why? Because it would surprise the most amount of people in my opinion. A lot of people want this hated rally to end, and that is why it wont. Also this is the first time in US history where the entity driving the bubble is literally the FED. They have facilitated all the bubbles indirectly before but now they are outright buying the market to keep it going up. Obviously this will end badly, but not for several more years in my opinion. Good chart though again, thanks for posting it.