Elliott Wave: Week of 2/19/19 - Crunch Time for "The Bat"
Happy Days are Here Again! What can possibly go wrong? Fed Put - check! Tariffs/Trade resolved - check! (maybe). Giddy sentiment with giddy-up - check! I admit I'm impressed, but not convinced.
Navigating the market since October's decline has been difficult, but rewarding. Like many, I plan on holding my rewards. So, what to do, besides worry or celebrate, as resistance is taken out on the way up? Stick to the plan, of course.
Next hurdles are always part of point-to-point navigation. The 50d sma and 200d sma are in the rear-view at present. Ditto for Fibonacci retracement levels. So where is the line that confirms we're all clear? In such a circumstance I look to harmonics and the relevant pattern based on price moves thus far.
The 2016 impulse is well identified by all. As a major Elliott Wave impulse it began at 1810.10 and reached a high of 2940.91 (X-A). That distance has been retraced by slightly more than 50% (A-B). A look at relevant harmonic patterns leads to "The Bullish Bat" pattern to define expectations. Upward retrace is shown as legs B-C in the pattern set at .764 (SPX 2800), though a max value is allowed as .886 of the A-B distance. Textbook pattern subsequently carries lower as C-D to a max level of .886 of the original X-A thrust.
In Elliott Wave the current move up is still corrective wave b, with a subsequent wave c being consistent with the Bat pattern's termination (C-D). That is also consistent with Elliott Wave's correcting of higher degree impulse wave from the 2009 low as a proportional 34% drop.
The ride up has been rewarding, but remaining on watch for peril is vital based on probability. A violation of the outline above allows for Happy Days to continue. Alternatively, a rough patch is still ahead with a navigation path described above. The market will certainly let us all know in due time.
Navigating the market since October's decline has been difficult, but rewarding. Like many, I plan on holding my rewards. So, what to do, besides worry or celebrate, as resistance is taken out on the way up? Stick to the plan, of course.
Next hurdles are always part of point-to-point navigation. The 50d sma and 200d sma are in the rear-view at present. Ditto for Fibonacci retracement levels. So where is the line that confirms we're all clear? In such a circumstance I look to harmonics and the relevant pattern based on price moves thus far.
The 2016 impulse is well identified by all. As a major Elliott Wave impulse it began at 1810.10 and reached a high of 2940.91 (X-A). That distance has been retraced by slightly more than 50% (A-B). A look at relevant harmonic patterns leads to "The Bullish Bat" pattern to define expectations. Upward retrace is shown as legs B-C in the pattern set at .764 (SPX 2800), though a max value is allowed as .886 of the A-B distance. Textbook pattern subsequently carries lower as C-D to a max level of .886 of the original X-A thrust.
In Elliott Wave the current move up is still corrective wave b, with a subsequent wave c being consistent with the Bat pattern's termination (C-D). That is also consistent with Elliott Wave's correcting of higher degree impulse wave from the 2009 low as a proportional 34% drop.
The ride up has been rewarding, but remaining on watch for peril is vital based on probability. A violation of the outline above allows for Happy Days to continue. Alternatively, a rough patch is still ahead with a navigation path described above. The market will certainly let us all know in due time.