Sforex
Short

IDEA FOR S&P500 NEXT WEEK.

INDEX:SPX   S&P 500 Index
375 2 2
Fundamental Analysis:
- Last week, we saw a strange trading week. SP500             broke key support level 1825.84 and then set new high 1850. The rise of SP500             last week was reinforced by positive data of US economy. We should thank to good retail Sales and CPI             .

However, that is the problem of last week , we should pay attention to this week.

No major economic data of US are released this week, so we think SP500             couldn't find the dynamic to rally this week.

This's time for correction.

The biggest problem of SP500             is that its advance depend greatly on FED taper decision. Recently, we saw SP500             tried to escape from the influence of FED taper decision.

Usually, if FED taper warmed up, SP500             was sell off and vice versa, but everything gradually change. SP500             rally despite of FED taper. This is explained due to US economy recover very well, so SP500             can stand on its foot despite of FED taper.

Next two weeks is FOMC Minutes, most likely FED will continue to taper gradually as they said, the advance of SP500             will be decided in that Minutes.

- Technical Analysis .
We have following support and resistance levels now:

- The high 1849.56 : strong resistance level.
- 23.6% Fib retracement: 1823.85.
- 38.2% Fib retracement : 1808.71 : strong support level.

We saw SP500             may form double top pattern if we choose the odds of SP500             this week is downtrend.

Moreover, when we check Stoch and RSI indicators, we saw a strong divergence between indicators and price.

This is the strong SELL signal.

In my opinion, I think at least SP500             will test 1823.85 level next week, and in the worst screen, it will reach 1808.71 level. I ignore the uptrend means set up new high.
im entering short too ;) great analysis
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Sforex PRO
2 years ago
Break 1823.25 today..
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