CurtisM

$SPX in transition mode.

INDEX:SPX   S&P 500 Index
222 0 0
This is a very busy chart as $SPX             is working out whether it wants to continue with the trend that started in November or morph into a down trend. $SPX             has held above the rising trend line and is now moving within the confines of a falling price channel that may ultimately prove to be a bull flag. If it is in fact a Bull Flag, then $SPX             should break out decisively to the top side soon otherwise $SPX             will drift sideways to down for who knows how long.

The green dashed lines are at the most recent closing high and the most recent closing low. We're going to get a new closing high or a new closing low sooner or later and this will help determine which way $SPX             wants to go. A new closing high above 1669.16 and we're most likely headed higher. A new closing low and we're most likely headed lower. Yeah, I know. Lots of "if this then that" but that is what you get when the market is in transition mode.

I have marked A, B,C on the chart as this is perhaps the beginning of an A,B,C structure down. However, this cannot be confirmed until there is a new closing low, at which time a Fibonnaci price projection can be calculated. Until there is confirmation, these are just marks on the chart.

The 'A' point on the chart marks what Richard Wyckoff would call an upthrust. An upthrust is what you look for at the end of a move and it has to be confirmed with a lower close the following day, which is what happened. If the up trend has truly ended, then what now looks like an orderly pull back to the rising trend line and 50MA will not lead to a bounce and new highs but instead will see the market fall below voodoo support at 1608.09 and continue south.Until proven otherwise with a close above $SPX             1669.16, I'm going with the idea that the upthrust candle from May 22nd has signaled a market top which I believe could end up being a significant top that leads to long lasting decline. However, I don't have a crystal ball and the proof will be in the pudding, if you catch my drift.

All IMHO, of course, and subject to change without notice.

GL
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