Please see my post on 3/2/17 - "Progress of Minor Wave 4"
and my post on 3/12/17 "SPX Bottom Time Target 3/27/17"
In every market, and for individual stocks there is a point where the majority recognize the primary trend. For stock bull markets, this usually comes about 2/3 into the rise off of a significant bottom.
In the case of the SPX, that significant bottom was on 2/11/16.
After the majority recognizes the bullish trend, they hope for a correction, usually about 5 to 10% for a entry point to go long. Sometimes the 5 to 10% decline never comes because there are so many players that recognize the primary bullish trend, they are steadily buying which prevents a decline of even 5%.
This could be what is happening for the SPX. The rally from 11/4/16 has been very powerful and the decline from SPX at 2401.00 could be complete at 2335.70, only a 2.7% correction.
My post on 3/2/17 forecasted a 5% decline to the SPX 2262 - 2290 area. Later revised to 2280 - 2300, this was based upon a .382 retracement of the rally from 11/4/16 at 2083.80 to 2401.00
The SPX as of 3/24/17 has bottomed very close to a .382 retracement of the rally from 12/30/16 at 2233.60 to 2401.00
This is also close to a Fibonacci relationship with the Minor wave "2" decline which was; 2120.60 -1991.70 = 128.90 x .50 = 64.40. 2401.00 - 64.40 = 2336.60. Bottom on 3/24/17 was 2335.70.
On 3/24/17 the Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 held significantly above their bottoms made on 3/22/16.
There are significant bullish divergences on the hourly RSI and MACD.
The CBOE Put/Call ratio reached 1.21 on 3/24/17, which is type of reading made at the end of SPX corrections.
My post on 3/12/17 noted 3/27/17 as a bulls-eye Fibonacci time target. Allowing for minor leeway 3/24/17 is in the broader time target zone.
There is solid and abundant evidence that the Minor wave "4" low could be in place.
However, it is possible Minor wave "4" could be taking the form of a Elliott wave Horizontal Triangle. If so we can expect the 2335.70 low to hold as the SPX meanders sideways for the next two to three weeks. I will have updates on this development if necessary.
I still anticipate a possible major SPX top in the 2450 area.
Time target - first week of May 2017.
Mark
and my post on 3/12/17 "SPX Bottom Time Target 3/27/17"
In every market, and for individual stocks there is a point where the majority recognize the primary trend. For stock bull markets, this usually comes about 2/3 into the rise off of a significant bottom.
In the case of the SPX, that significant bottom was on 2/11/16.
After the majority recognizes the bullish trend, they hope for a correction, usually about 5 to 10% for a entry point to go long. Sometimes the 5 to 10% decline never comes because there are so many players that recognize the primary bullish trend, they are steadily buying which prevents a decline of even 5%.
This could be what is happening for the SPX. The rally from 11/4/16 has been very powerful and the decline from SPX at 2401.00 could be complete at 2335.70, only a 2.7% correction.
My post on 3/2/17 forecasted a 5% decline to the SPX 2262 - 2290 area. Later revised to 2280 - 2300, this was based upon a .382 retracement of the rally from 11/4/16 at 2083.80 to 2401.00
The SPX as of 3/24/17 has bottomed very close to a .382 retracement of the rally from 12/30/16 at 2233.60 to 2401.00
This is also close to a Fibonacci relationship with the Minor wave "2" decline which was; 2120.60 -1991.70 = 128.90 x .50 = 64.40. 2401.00 - 64.40 = 2336.60. Bottom on 3/24/17 was 2335.70.
On 3/24/17 the Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 held significantly above their bottoms made on 3/22/16.
There are significant bullish divergences on the hourly RSI and MACD.
The CBOE Put/Call ratio reached 1.21 on 3/24/17, which is type of reading made at the end of SPX corrections.
My post on 3/12/17 noted 3/27/17 as a bulls-eye Fibonacci time target. Allowing for minor leeway 3/24/17 is in the broader time target zone.
There is solid and abundant evidence that the Minor wave "4" low could be in place.
However, it is possible Minor wave "4" could be taking the form of a Elliott wave Horizontal Triangle. If so we can expect the 2335.70 low to hold as the SPX meanders sideways for the next two to three weeks. I will have updates on this development if necessary.
I still anticipate a possible major SPX top in the 2450 area.
Time target - first week of May 2017.
Mark