OPTION 1: it seems likely to me, based on past market behavior and consumer sentiment that we are likely to continue with an upward trend this year, perhaps finishing the year level with the recent highs. I'm not going to discuss fundamental factors in this post, but it is highly likely that the value of assets will have to increase in the same period as the value of our money declines, and in a rational market I would expect the value of assets to double over the next 5-7 years, and for the S&P 500 to do the same. This observation is based solely on the behavior of the markets in the past. it is possible to have a couple of slower years from 2024-2025, but generally speaking 2023 may finish at least close to the recent highs, some tech stocks may take a little time to recover, mainly because of the high growth they experienced over the last few years (not counting 2022 lol)
OPTION 2: However, it would be foolish to not be prepared for the markets to correct further, so while I will take actions assuming that the markets will begin there ascent in q1 2023, I will leave a little in reserve, prepared for buying at a discount early next year. probably i would be better off over the next seven years if we get a larger correction, but I have to trade the markets we have, not the markets I want, so I will take what I get. When I observe the crowd, I believe that more people will benefit from the markets bottoming here, so it is my hope that we have indeed bottomed on this trend-line and we continue our ascent for for now.
OPTION 3: this option is unrealistic, and takes into consideration a potential bubble scenario. I am not sure how this will happen, but if it does it will initially make a few people millionaires, and subsequently destroy the lives of a few million people for a couple of years, so don't be greedy if we get a bubble, as there will be at least an 80% correction in whatever the tulips are this time.
Epilogue: Usually I take about 3-4 hours to create a well thought out post, but I had 30 minutes today as my time is tight until February. I wanted to provide this broad market outlook before it was obvious to any rational observer, so I published it today. I will use this as my market guide for this year, so it will likely be the post I update until 2024. my overall perspective today currently is to focus mainly on 5- 20 year time-frames, because as we can see from the past, it is more than likely that we will be successful if we can be patient. best of luck.
OPTION 2: However, it would be foolish to not be prepared for the markets to correct further, so while I will take actions assuming that the markets will begin there ascent in q1 2023, I will leave a little in reserve, prepared for buying at a discount early next year. probably i would be better off over the next seven years if we get a larger correction, but I have to trade the markets we have, not the markets I want, so I will take what I get. When I observe the crowd, I believe that more people will benefit from the markets bottoming here, so it is my hope that we have indeed bottomed on this trend-line and we continue our ascent for for now.
OPTION 3: this option is unrealistic, and takes into consideration a potential bubble scenario. I am not sure how this will happen, but if it does it will initially make a few people millionaires, and subsequently destroy the lives of a few million people for a couple of years, so don't be greedy if we get a bubble, as there will be at least an 80% correction in whatever the tulips are this time.
Epilogue: Usually I take about 3-4 hours to create a well thought out post, but I had 30 minutes today as my time is tight until February. I wanted to provide this broad market outlook before it was obvious to any rational observer, so I published it today. I will use this as my market guide for this year, so it will likely be the post I update until 2024. my overall perspective today currently is to focus mainly on 5- 20 year time-frames, because as we can see from the past, it is more than likely that we will be successful if we can be patient. best of luck.