msmk

Why I think S&P 500 ( SPX) is alreaady in bear market

SP:SPX   S&P 500
Looking back previous declines in 2000 and 2008, MACD , MACD Histogram and RSI exhibited certain characteristics, which can be seen again.

  • MACD crossed below signal and trends down
  • MACD Histogram slips below 0 and trending down
  • RSI trending down

In 2008 prices never went above 2000 peak serving as resistance, likewise 2008 decline did not go below 2002 bottom serving as support. However, recent bull rally went above 2008 peak, This means it is reasonable to expect that 2008 peak will serve as support for current decline/bear market. Assuming market will come down in the same angle as it went up, this bear market will end by late 2017 when it touches the support.
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