The stock market had another disappointing session to close out a disappointing year. The main indices remained pinned in negative territory on Friday amid thinner holiday trading conditions, but to be fair, pared their losses in a substantive way thanks to a rally effort in the final hour.
A holiday-shortened week kicks off 2023. While investors will likely be excited to put a dismal 2022 behind them, the new year gets off to a slow start on the earnings front. The first trading week of the year will see financial markets closed on Monday for the New Year's Day holiday before economic releases start picking back up again, including the highly anticipated release of the December jobs report on Friday. Despite some high-profile announcements of job layoffs in recent months, the unemployment rate in the U.S. has only ticked up to 3.7%. A stronger-than-anticipated jobs report could lead to even more hawkishness from the Federal Reserve. Several FOMC members have speeches scheduled for near the end of the week that could also impact investor sentiment. On the conference agenda, CES 2023 is expected to throw a spotlight back on tech innovations such as electric/autonomous vehicles, Web 3.0, and the metaverse. Also in the mix next week, analysts have warned companies across various sectors could pre-announce earnings or issue guidance updates below expectations.
Chart: SPX daily
Chart: QQQ daily
Chart: DIA daily
From the tech side of analysis, last Friday's rally made overall markets look very positive. Therefore, I will be more focused on some long ideas in the first week of 2023.
Chart: SPX 15 mins
From the 15 mins chart, SPX 3850ish resistance still there, after a hard pull in the last hour of Friday trade, SPX looks quite extended from 8&21 EMAs. Therefore, SPX will likely to trace back to 3820ish and see if it finds some support there. (if SPX holds above 3820ish, that's the place I would like to open some long positions) 3800ish support level looks quite solid, but if it breaks with vol, then it will become a turning point for overall markets.
But As I said at the beginning, I am overall bullish on major indices, and I don't think the FED will become even more hawkish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
A holiday-shortened week kicks off 2023. While investors will likely be excited to put a dismal 2022 behind them, the new year gets off to a slow start on the earnings front. The first trading week of the year will see financial markets closed on Monday for the New Year's Day holiday before economic releases start picking back up again, including the highly anticipated release of the December jobs report on Friday. Despite some high-profile announcements of job layoffs in recent months, the unemployment rate in the U.S. has only ticked up to 3.7%. A stronger-than-anticipated jobs report could lead to even more hawkishness from the Federal Reserve. Several FOMC members have speeches scheduled for near the end of the week that could also impact investor sentiment. On the conference agenda, CES 2023 is expected to throw a spotlight back on tech innovations such as electric/autonomous vehicles, Web 3.0, and the metaverse. Also in the mix next week, analysts have warned companies across various sectors could pre-announce earnings or issue guidance updates below expectations.
From the tech side of analysis, last Friday's rally made overall markets look very positive. Therefore, I will be more focused on some long ideas in the first week of 2023.
From the 15 mins chart, SPX 3850ish resistance still there, after a hard pull in the last hour of Friday trade, SPX looks quite extended from 8&21 EMAs. Therefore, SPX will likely to trace back to 3820ish and see if it finds some support there. (if SPX holds above 3820ish, that's the place I would like to open some long positions) 3800ish support level looks quite solid, but if it breaks with vol, then it will become a turning point for overall markets.
But As I said at the beginning, I am overall bullish on major indices, and I don't think the FED will become even more hawkish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.