markrivest

Happy Bear Year?

TVC:SPX   S&P 500 Index
The year 2020 will be know as the year the bears were crushed. In spite of the fastest bear market in history, the balance of 2020 was brutal for the bears. All of the pain, anguish and loss could have been avoided if they had paid attention to just two factors, a deeply depressed US stock market and aggressive FOMC liquidity. My 03/30/20 post summed it up in just four words, "don't fight the Fed".

The move up in US stocks since March 2020 has been the most powerful since the early 1930's, and early January can sometimes form some degree of a peak. Examples of which were illustrated on my website. The SPX is nearing a potential Fibonacci resistance zone in the 3780's. This calculation is base upon a relationship with the SPX - March 2009 to January 2010 rally.

Daily RSI and MACD have bearish divergences. Perhaps at least a short-term top could be made as soon as next week.

On the bigger picture maybe 2021 could become the year of the bear.

Mark






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