christian.langfors

START OF A BIGGER BEAR MARKET?

INDEX:SPX   S&P 500 Index
37 2 1
If this month closes at or below this level (currently @1851), this will be one ugly month where 20 months of bull rally where erased in a few trading days!

It sure doesn't look good at the moment but notice how SPX             has rebounded from the lower Bollinger Band on a monthly chart in the first leg down, all the way up to MA20 on a monthly time frame.

Time will tell, one thing is sure though and this will be interesting to follow and trade. Be patient with the entries, remember to use stop/loss orders!
Will Wong
a year ago
Would you say that starting from March 2009, we are just in wave 4?
Reply
christian.langfors Will Wong
a year ago
Hi Will,

I'm sorry but Elliott Wave's are not my thing. However, on the monthly time frame, this year's price action somewhat reminds of a rounded top. BUT the volatility in price movements have been quite moderate this year, not really yelling start of bear market. It is though too early to say, I would like to have a confirmation form of more volatility, testing atleast lower Bollinger on monthly time frame and another re-test of MA20 on the same time frame. If MA20 (SPX ~2000) test fails to break upwards, well that is what I'm going to look closer at (note how MA20 test has been made in previous bear markets and failed).
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