christian.langfors

START OF A BIGGER BEAR MARKET?

SP:SPX   S&P 500 Index
37 2 1
If this month closes at or below this level (currently @1851), this will be one ugly month where 20 months of bull rally where erased in a few trading days!

It sure doesn't look good at the moment but notice how SPX             has rebounded from the lower Bollinger Band on a monthly chart in the first leg down, all the way up to MA20 on a monthly time frame.

Time will tell, one thing is sure though and this will be interesting to follow and trade. Be patient with the entries, remember to use stop/loss orders!
Would you say that starting from March 2009, we are just in wave 4?
Reply
Hi Will,

I'm sorry but Elliott Wave's are not my thing. However, on the monthly time frame, this year's price action somewhat reminds of a rounded top. BUT the volatility in price movements have been quite moderate this year, not really yelling start of bear market. It is though too early to say, I would like to have a confirmation form of more volatility, testing atleast lower Bollinger on monthly time frame and another re-test of MA20 on the same time frame. If MA20 (SPX ~2000) test fails to break upwards, well that is what I'm going to look closer at (note how MA20 test has been made in previous bear markets and failed).
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