jangseohee

SPX, what is the commotion

INDEX:SPX   S&P 500 Index
648 36 1
Well, the past week is real messy, one big red bar erased last five weeks gain. It is usual aint it? :-)
We have it 3 instances before.

1. On the first week of Dec             2013, there was a big bar erasing 3 weeks gain, after that it was Christmas rally, previous high not violated.
2. 3rd week of Jan 2014, the big bar erasing 4 weeks/one month's gain, previous high was taken out, hence another two candle lower.
3. Last week of July 2014, a big bar erasing almost 8 weeks/2months of gain, previous high not taken out.
4. As of now, this big bar erased 5.5 weeks of gain, previous high taken out.

Let's see if 2000 get taken out on Monday

P.S. On top of that, each time we see a hammer there is a 200+ point going up :-)
If this is true, then I suggest you look at NYA (NYSE composite), 1 day for the last year. You'll see a head & shoulders breakdown. The NYA never made any new highs with the previous drops, and is on the cusp of a decent pullback, possibly back down to the 8000 mark. My vortex indicator is also showing everything going negative this time, after a brief negative territory for the October decline, it hasn't been negative since 2013, so I think this time is different!!
+1 Reply
jangseohee TBone999
Hi Tbone, "this time is different" means more bear taken out previous low or Christmas Rally with make ATH? :-)
Sure i have not post NYA analysis for quite sometime
do we hav Vortex indicator in Tradingview.com?
Reply
TBone999 jangseohee
Yeah, there is one on trading view, select a period of 150 and you'll see what I mean, this goes for the SPX as well, it's rapidly going negative on this which would indicate we're getting to the end of this, especially with oil going as it is, people are getting scared, and the FED won't do anthing about it since it would be helping all the other countries as well!
Reply
TBone999 TBone999
There's a lot of risk out there with these Shale companies borrowing money, if oil keeps dropping, a lot are going to have collateral problems, as some have loaned cash when oil was at $100. Counterparty risk is the key here, and shale oil probably accounts for around 18-20% of HY credit, so could get nasty
Reply
jangseohee TBone999
YUP, any further drop < 50, company will go bust which in turn will create havoc in stock market
Reply
jangseohee TBone999
Christmas Rally, no?
Reply
jangseohee TBone999
I change the vortex indicator to 150, blue the +ve is coming down while the -ve red is moving up!
but what is the rational of changing to 150 from 14? to fit the changes?
It works like the directional movement aint it?
Reply
jangseohee TBone999
but not doing anything so as not to help other countries would mean let the Shale companies just go bust?
Reply
jangseohee TBone999
Bear with me until Dec 31, a similar scenario in SPX 2008 TOP is completing
Reply
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