jangseohee

SPX, what is the commotion

INDEX:SPX   S&P 500 Index
648 36 1
Well, the past week is real messy, one big red bar erased last five weeks gain. It is usual aint it? :-)
We have it 3 instances before.

1. On the first week of Dec 2013, there was a big bar erasing 3 weeks gain, after that it was Christmas rally, previous high not violated.
2. 3rd week of Jan 2014, the big bar erasing 4 weeks/one month's gain, previous high was taken out, hence another two candle lower.
3. Last week of July 2014, a big bar erasing almost 8 weeks/2months of gain, previous high not taken out.
4. As of now, this big bar erased 5.5 weeks of gain, previous high taken out.

Let's see if 2000 get taken out on Monday

P.S. On top of that, each time we see a hammer there is a 200+ point going up :-)

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JohnKeverich
2 years ago
If we rally from here back to new highs, doesn't this figure look like inverted H&S? :)
+1 Reply
jangseohee JohnKeverich
2 years ago
haha, nice observative eyes :-)
Inverted H&S at the TOP/near the TOP is rare though
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TBone999
2 years ago
If this is true, then I suggest you look at NYA (NYSE composite), 1 day for the last year. You'll see a head & shoulders breakdown. The NYA never made any new highs with the previous drops, and is on the cusp of a decent pullback, possibly back down to the 8000 mark. My vortex indicator is also showing everything going negative this time, after a brief negative territory for the October decline, it hasn't been negative since 2013, so I think this time is different!!
+1 Reply
jangseohee TBone999
2 years ago
Hi Tbone, "this time is different" means more bear taken out previous low or Christmas Rally with make ATH? :-)
Sure i have not post NYA analysis for quite sometime
do we hav Vortex indicator in Tradingview.com?
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TBone999 jangseohee
2 years ago
Yeah, there is one on trading view, select a period of 150 and you'll see what I mean, this goes for the SPX as well, it's rapidly going negative on this which would indicate we're getting to the end of this, especially with oil going as it is, people are getting scared, and the FED won't do anthing about it since it would be helping all the other countries as well!
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TBone999 TBone999
2 years ago
There's a lot of risk out there with these Shale companies borrowing money, if oil keeps dropping, a lot are going to have collateral problems, as some have loaned cash when oil was at $100. Counterparty risk is the key here, and shale oil probably accounts for around 18-20% of HY credit, so could get nasty
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jangseohee TBone999
2 years ago
YUP, any further drop < 50, company will go bust which in turn will create havoc in stock market
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jangseohee TBone999
2 years ago
Christmas Rally, no?
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jangseohee TBone999
2 years ago
I change the vortex indicator to 150, blue the +ve is coming down while the -ve red is moving up!
but what is the rational of changing to 150 from 14? to fit the changes?
It works like the directional movement aint it?
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jangseohee TBone999
2 years ago
but not doing anything so as not to help other countries would mean let the Shale companies just go bust?
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jangseohee TBone999
2 years ago
Bear with me until Dec 31, a similar scenario in SPX 2008 TOP is completing
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TBone999 jangseohee
2 years ago
Unfortunately, the US is stuck in between a rock and a hard place, they want higher inflation which lower prices will bring and possibly better for the economy overall, which would be offset somewhat by the shale companys going bust and more likely wall street financiers, which they'll bail out again if the contagion goes awal and they're big enough to finance the government as they do. They don't want to be seen as helping Russia, the Saudi's are pissed with the US for their loss of market share and also failure to do anything about the middle east problems. There is a whole lot of stuff going on that makes me think this is not just a small problem, but could erupt for sure. Can't be positive about this with any conviction, but doesn't look promising to me!
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TBone999 TBone999
2 years ago
The idea of using 150 for the vortex is to pinpoint bigger events for the S&P, you'll notice it identities the 2008 crash and 2011 flash crash. Just an indicator don't forget, could still go either way, but the news out there (I don't mean CNBC either) doesn't look good for rallies etc
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jangseohee TBone999
2 years ago
Over the past 10yrs the month of December has ended higher 8 times (even in 2008!), 8:2
and it will be 8:3 :-)
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jangseohee TBone999
2 years ago
just learn something from you, i never heard of vortex indicator ha ha,
normally MACD, RSI, DMI and CCI for me
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TBone999 jangseohee
2 years ago
Well, all indicators as you should know are based on price data alone, just different ways to graphically show the price movement however you want to interpret it. They're not predictive in any way, so no-one knows the future (although all the pundits seem to think they have some kind of seance like foresight into what will happen next). It's just a guessing game. The only ones who probably do know are the insiders, and the FED and other central bankers who manipulate everything. It's a fools game to try and predict how things will go, but a keen eye on news events and the general macro-sphere view of finance can do a lot to see how things may go. I just find the vortex indicator to be the most versatile view of how people are thinking short term and longer term rather than getting bogged down with elliot waves, MA's, RSI's etc. I would suggest studying more on the factual events occurring, which can or can't be verified by charts as a scope to being successful. Not trying to be detrimental to anthing you do, I don't know you, but posting observations on the charts alone is not really any use to anyone.
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jangseohee TBone999
2 years ago
True, TA is a probability and guessing what is gonna happen base on some tools
well, if can make $$$ >60% of the time, worth the study
of course the real TA is those Central banks with some big bank and even Buffett, who manipulate the TA to trick us into seeing what we want to see :-)
+1 Reply
TBone999 jangseohee
2 years ago
Exactly, it's not an even sided game, and us as retail investors are generally considered easy meat to their way of thinking. They have all the rules in their favor, the US doesn't prosecute the big boys whatever dirty game they've been caught out in, so how are we going to have any say when all the cash is gone!! What I'm saying is use the info that's out there to make constructive trading decisions and just the charting aspect to follow your decision.
+1 Reply
jangseohee TBone999
2 years ago
besides TA, i also consider psychological aspect.
Those TA manipulators are liken to banker in a poker game.
They know they can win every single game and each win is not a 100% win also, there will be 20% winner always who really make good use of probability
it is the 80/20 rule.
so each trading decision i will try to phycho myself on how dump money will act, of course many atime i am caught with my pants down as well :-)
+1 Reply
TBone999 jangseohee
2 years ago
Just keep an eye on the vortex, you can use it for any period time to gain a view of market direction in any trading time frame be it day trading or whatever to gauge market direction. Good luck
+1 Reply
jangseohee TBone999
2 years ago
same to you too thanks
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TBone999 jangseohee
2 years ago
Just as an addition, you see the massive head and shoulders thats formed on the S&P since the early 90's. The only reason that it hasn't happened yet is because of the money printing, this will be a global game changer when it collapses! Have a nice day.
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jangseohee TBone999
2 years ago
mmm, i couldn't see it though
USD replaced by Yuan?
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jangseohee TBone999
2 years ago
early 90s? for year 2000
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TBone999 jangseohee
2 years ago
They started pumping around 1995 by the looks of it
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jangseohee TBone999
2 years ago
k
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jangseohee TBone999
2 years ago
we actually have a mini H&S top broken neckline in daily chart of DJTA!
+1 Reply
jangseohee TBone999
2 years ago
still lack of quarterly/yearly chart here
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IvanLabrie TOP jangseohee
2 years ago
Tim West has you covered...
snapshot
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jangseohee IvanLabrie
2 years ago
he is expert in Bar chart!
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TBone999 jangseohee
2 years ago
I don't actually use Tradingview, I use multicharts, just keep receiving the mails for posters
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jangseohee TBone999
2 years ago
ic
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jangseohee TBone999
2 years ago
my trading platform is Thinkorswim
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TBone999 jangseohee
2 years ago
TOSTOS are ok for their info, and platform, but trading charges are too much for my liking. I use IB, fairly crappy as far as info, but they're trying to improve, but the cost is a lot better and being direct as well is a lot better rather than TOS being the middle man between trades
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jangseohee TBone999
2 years ago
ic
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jangseohee
2 years ago
snapshot
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