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Stocks Could Be Preparing for a Big Move

SP:SPX   S&P 500 Index
September’s been a pretty quiet month so far, despite its reputation for volatility. However, prices might be gearing for a bigger move relatively soon.

The first pattern on today’s chart of the SPX S&P 500 index is Wilder’s Relative Strength Index (RSI). The oscillator has been sitting little changed around the midpoint of 50 for the last week. It’s neither overbought nor oversold. Readings like this are unusual. Will traders pile in on either side once a move begins?

Next, the index is in the midst of forming a second consecutive inside week. That also highlights the narrowing of price action.

Third, consider the rally from the low of August 14 to the high of September 1. SPX has held a 50 percent retracement of that move, which may bolster the case for an upward trend.

Another potentially bullish signal is the relationship between the 8-day and 21-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). The faster EMA crossed above the slower EMA almost two weeks ago and has remained there since.

These points could be important heading into next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

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