Mirandole
Short

2007 pre-crash : Psychology of Diamond Top on #SPX500 #SPY

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
« The crash site (downtrend end) is often near the price level of the launch site (uptrend start). » T. Bulkowski

Just to notice on the S&P 500             daily scale we've got a rare chart pattern : a diamond top.

In the case of a diamond top, the psychology of this pattern is characterized by the double indecision of symmetrical broadening. In fact, broadening highlights the increased volatility
unable to sustain the upward trend in the long term. The bullish forces diminish and shares change hands to go from majority stockholders in the market to less informed stockholders.
After a period of euphoria and the market enter in a period of uncertainty. This is materialized in significant oscillations of the course. The output of this chart pattern has a high probability (80%) to reverse down the last upward trend.

An example of Diamond Top on SPX500             , 2007 pre-crash period :

 
Wow what an epic call…kudos.
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Mirandole PRO JPMorgains
It was a lucky trade indeed.
Thank you Morgains !

Regards
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JPMorgains Mirandole
Hat tip!
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Very nice chart. Reached all 3 targets in a very short time period. How do you see the next price pattern?
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greenplay greenplay

Is the downward correction of SPX500 yet over?
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Mirandole PRO greenplay
Hi Greenplay !

Thank you for your comment. Is the downward correction over ? How do I see the next price pattern ? For now I really don't know. I may publish a chart if I do.

Best Regards,
Julien
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greenplay Mirandole
Thank You very much Julien. I like your chart study. Will pay close attention in future :)
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would this fit as a diamond bottom?
snapshot
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Hi Tst !

Indeed, It looks like to a diamond bottom. Unfortunately you are on a very short timeframe. Diamond Top/Bottom works really better on long timeframe : 4H 1D. Moreover you have to be careful with the USOIL price when you trade a canadian pair. Even if this is a diamond bottom it has only 69% of probability to breakout upward. To enter long you need to wait a breakout of the diamond bottom pattern. There is indecision on GBPCAD. This week, I was bearish on this pair. You should wait a bit before entering long or short. Let's see why I would prefer to wait a bit.

You have a bearish engulfing on 1W chart :

snapshot


It means that the bullish force of the uptrend is getting out of breath. So a lot of long traders may take some profits and the price may go further down. We may start a correction.

In add, on the 1D chart view :

snapshot


You have a Long Upper Shadow candlestick. This is a bearish signal. We are close to break the uptrend support.
If we break 2.09 level support we may go a lot further down.


On 1H view :

snapshot


We have indeed a diamond bottom forming but in accordance with the long term view which is very bearish, I'll be extra-cautious about getting long here. Because we have break the uptrend support. So 2.02840 horizontal support need to hold to bounce up. And I don't think it will hold. This may trap a lot of long traders.

I would advise you to not entering long on this trade. GBPCAD looks really bearish to me. So I won't going long on it even if it may go up a bit before going down again and strongly.


I hope I have helped you. And I am sorry for my english. I know it isn't good. But I try to do my best to practice it.


Best Regards,
Julien
+1 Reply
tst PRO Mirandole
Many Thanks Julien. yes being a low time frame it would have less probability. 1 month ago I published an idea on gbpcad "wait for the short". the uptrend reach exhaustion around where I had thought. i was looking for a reversal for short entry when I noticed the diamond so im just wait and see.... My trading plan is two weekly closes below a trend line and this is the first weekly close. ill be watching this week to see if I can get a short trade out of this pair.
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