(Disclaimer: I have posted several short ideas on ES/SPY/SPX since the start of the year - I have played some of them for quick profits, also have gotten burned a couple times; it's safe to conclude that so far, the bullish trend hasn't been broken, but hasn't accelerated either. And even if the S&P 500 just made a new closing high today, it's still stuck in the same range it has been for a couple months already. In conclusion: I'll keep trying to play the ranges until it stops working).
ES/SPY/SPX thoughts:
Stuck in a 60pt range since Early February
Signs of strong selling pressure around SPY 212 / SPX 2120
Resilience in 100-day MA as key trendline support.
Tightening Bollinger Bands signal the possibility of a big move in either direction to come soon.
Mixed signals on RSI and other momentum indicators.
The Index has gone unscathed through geopolitical distress in Europe, a slowdown in China, the blackout in corporate buybacks, and recently, a deep selloff in US Treasury bonds, thus showing the crucial importance of the Bernanke/Yellen Put in explaining stock prices.
Playing the ranges has worked wonders so far; but a shift towards a directional bet is in order (having in mind SPX above 2125+ and under 2075- closing levels as key prices to watch).
PS: The theme of worsening macro data and technical divergence that has been extensively documented by several market analysts is still on; however, it has to be confirmed whether these factors can generate a change in direction for the US equity market.
Best of luck trading and don't get caught in the chop.
ES/SPY/SPX thoughts:
Stuck in a 60pt range since Early February
Signs of strong selling pressure around SPY 212 / SPX 2120
Resilience in 100-day MA as key trendline support.
Tightening Bollinger Bands signal the possibility of a big move in either direction to come soon.
Mixed signals on RSI and other momentum indicators.
The Index has gone unscathed through geopolitical distress in Europe, a slowdown in China, the blackout in corporate buybacks, and recently, a deep selloff in US Treasury bonds, thus showing the crucial importance of the Bernanke/Yellen Put in explaining stock prices.
Playing the ranges has worked wonders so far; but a shift towards a directional bet is in order (having in mind SPX above 2125+ and under 2075- closing levels as key prices to watch).
PS: The theme of worsening macro data and technical divergence that has been extensively documented by several market analysts is still on; however, it has to be confirmed whether these factors can generate a change in direction for the US equity market.
Best of luck trading and don't get caught in the chop.
