SP500 - Maybe time to short again, but trade in different way
The picture is a bit mixed, but the Bull clearly loosing momentum again.
Daily: ADX lost a lot, trend momentum decreasing. DMI is unclear too. Slow Stoch turning bearish again, MACD has been bearish for a while (divergence). Price could not make a new high. Tenkan, Kijun and Future Kumo components are all flat. This will likely attract the Price down. Short term key level is 1956-1962 -> daily Kijun + 4 Hrs Kumo. The real support is only the Kumo itself + the trendline, so the first correction tgt is nto lower than 1915-1924. Bulls will likely try to protect these levels. If not... then we all know what's next, but its too early to give predictions about a major trend reversal. Anyway, it is never wise to be predictive, try to be rather reactive.
4 Hrs: Break attempt on the bottom, break attempt on the high, but no follow through in any directions. Thin and flat Kumo both spot and in the future. This is a consolidation and a range on 4 Hrs. ADX proves same, this mkt has no trend on this lower time frame. Short term key levels: 1970 / 1965 / 1950.
Summary: I think we have a good chance SP500 will minimum build an interim top here. It can happen either with a sideaway range trading or with a minor 2-2,5 % correction down. But risk reward for longs is not very good from here. Question is, is it good for the short? Well, since in worst case scenario it stucks in a range ard the top, this time I suggest 0,5-1 max trade unit shorts, but rather with top hunting style. Ichimoku's biggest disadvantage is that as any other trend following system it is not working on sideaway mkts, and gives a lot of false signals too late.
So use rather the oscillators and momentum indicators now first and sell the 1974 - 1979 level, with a stop above the all time high.
Daily: ADX lost a lot, trend momentum decreasing. DMI is unclear too. Slow Stoch turning bearish again, MACD has been bearish for a while (divergence). Price could not make a new high. Tenkan, Kijun and Future Kumo components are all flat. This will likely attract the Price down. Short term key level is 1956-1962 -> daily Kijun + 4 Hrs Kumo. The real support is only the Kumo itself + the trendline, so the first correction tgt is nto lower than 1915-1924. Bulls will likely try to protect these levels. If not... then we all know what's next, but its too early to give predictions about a major trend reversal. Anyway, it is never wise to be predictive, try to be rather reactive.
4 Hrs: Break attempt on the bottom, break attempt on the high, but no follow through in any directions. Thin and flat Kumo both spot and in the future. This is a consolidation and a range on 4 Hrs. ADX proves same, this mkt has no trend on this lower time frame. Short term key levels: 1970 / 1965 / 1950.
Summary: I think we have a good chance SP500 will minimum build an interim top here. It can happen either with a sideaway range trading or with a minor 2-2,5 % correction down. But risk reward for longs is not very good from here. Question is, is it good for the short? Well, since in worst case scenario it stucks in a range ard the top, this time I suggest 0,5-1 max trade unit shorts, but rather with top hunting style. Ichimoku's biggest disadvantage is that as any other trend following system it is not working on sideaway mkts, and gives a lot of false signals too late.
So use rather the oscillators and momentum indicators now first and sell the 1974 - 1979 level, with a stop above the all time high.
