claydoctor
Short

SPX500 after labor day rally or possible black swan?

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
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Just some thoughts to consider here... Friday's employment numbers will be the last data point for the FED to base its decision on for sept 17th. I think whatever it reports, it sets up a possible after labor day rally, short lived as it might be though. I say might, because it may not happen at all, and the worst of all market days down have happened after a 3 day weekend. Elul29 is sept 13th, and the 14th is the first trading day after it. Very possible the fomc decision is not a big deal compared to what the market wants to do, or if we have a black swan in process by the meeting. This was no V dip, this was and is something completely different with a much longer time line, yet to be seen. Fear has driven many individual investors to the sidelines. Oil bouncing is a major indicator, something has changed and is about to change more so, and I have no idea what it is. Could be some world event no one is thinking about or broadcasting. I like GLD here, in advance of a breakout to a flight to safety factor, and metals themselves purking up now, which has not kicked in yet in this market downtrend.
I think that if it will reverse the whole uptrend, which is possible, it needs to start crashing down asap.
If it takes until the 13th or validate that pattern, then downtrend will be messy, and harder to predict and trade I think. (impulsive vs corrective behavior, in neowave terms)
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claydoctor IvanLabrie
at this post, we are at 1943, breaking through some important supports. Setting up for a good day for shorts. We may see that sharp snap down yet.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie claydoctor
USDJPY started accelerating in time! Brace yourself!
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