AynCzubas
Short

4th Wave Triangle of Initial 3rd Wave Down, Destined Still Lower

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
82 9 3
According to my count, S&P 500             is now within the 3rd wave of the initial impulse wave of the bear market which began on May 19th. The low point of 1833 reached on 8/24 seems to have been the 3rd of this 3rd wave. From that point until now, this consolidation is the 4th of the 3rd wave and is developing as a triangle. The triangle suggests a minimum downward thrust to 1842. I highly expect that the downward thrust impulse (which will be the 5th of the 3rd wave, completing the 3rd wave) will extend beyond that, to take out that 3rd of 3rd wave low, probably falling below 1814, which will also take out the low of October 2014 and lead to further panic selling.

One would typically then expect an upward retracement following a 3rd wave of between .382-.5 of the 3rd wave's length before the 5th wave begins.
AynCzubas
a year ago
Well, the post-triangle impulse came close (1854) to the minimum projected low target, 1842, but not quite. The rise from 1854 could still be the 4th wave of the incomplete downward thrust impulse, though this upward retracement seems unusually deep for a 4th wave, as it has not breached what I see as the thrust's 1st wave's extreme at 1913.88. It is also possible that the thrust did not fully reach the measured target because the triangle is still developing with a more complex structure and the thrust has not begun yet.
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AynCzubas
a year ago
If I were hard-pressed to fit all of the price action since the 1833 low until this moment into a contracting triangle (which it could be construed as), it could imply a drop to perhaps 1667. But, I will not assume that until I see further development. Just food for thought.
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AynCzubas AynCzubas
a year ago
Updated triangle parameters: Post-triangle thrust from this configuration is still pointing at about 1715 for the minimum downward thrust. Assuming the thrust measurement represents the extent of the the thrust impulse's 3rd wave, and the 3rd wave is .786 of the total thrust impulse, the bottom of this thrust (5th of 3rd) wave might reach 1667.
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AynCzubas AynCzubas
a year ago
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AynCzubas AynCzubas
a year ago
Today's price movement has exceeded the peak labeled "a", so I am retracting the triangle view of this wave 4. It seems more likely now that it is just a flat ABC wave 4 structure (unless the whole a-b-c shown here altogether constitutes an "a" wave of a much longer triangle, which to me seems doubtful).
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AynCzubas AynCzubas
a year ago
Having scrapped the triangle thrust idea, then 1763-1768 seems to be the next reasonably likely minimum downside target for the 5th wave of this impulse: it represents (from the presumed top of this 4th wave) .618 of the distance from the origin of the 1st wave to the end of the 3rd wave. It is quite typical for a 5th wave to be this length. This target is also the 1.236 extension of that distance spanning from the origin of wave 1 to the end of wave 3.
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AynCzubas AynCzubas
a year ago
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AynCzubas AynCzubas
a year ago
New Update:
4th Wave Appears Complete: Initial Downside Target 1760-1780 ?
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AynCzubas AynCzubas
a year ago
4th Wave Appears Complete: Initial Downside Target 1760-1780 ?
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