AynCzubas
Short

4th Wave Triangle Ending in Triangle Wave "e", Target Sub-1833.5

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
79 4 1
It looks like the "e" wave of the 4th wave triangle is itself also a triangle, and its component "e" wave likewise a triangle, and so on, ad infinitum (to the extent there is no more wiggle room and the downward thrust will be forced to commence), which is not uncommon. If so, its own post-triangle thrust measurement based on its present parameters would imply the initial thrust below the lower boundary of the 4th wave triangle near 1901 to begin the greater downward thrust.

If the "e" is also a triangle, then taking the end of wave "e" as 1960, the post-triangle thrust for wave 5 should end below the 1833.5 low of wave 3, which is appropriate for a 5th wave.
As the rally from 1938.6 has exceeded 1965.2, I will count the "e" wave as more likely an impulsive wave than a triangle. I interpret the present rally as wave (3) of the "e" wave. If so, a following wave (4) should stay above (or at least end above) 1965.2 before a wave (5) rally which should terminate no higher than the top of wave "c" of the greater triangle at 1993.6 to maintain this view of wave "e".

It is also conceivable that the whole 3-wave rally from 1930.2 has just been wave (a) of "e" so far, so I will leave that as an alternate count to consider.
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AynCzubas AynCzubas
I am noticing now that the decline from 1965.2 to 1938.6 (actually to 1943, its termination point) could be counted as a triangle, and that triangle yielded an upward thrust measurement that indeed very nearly matched the following rally to 1975.4.

That fact lends credence to the view that it was the "B" of an "ABC" wave, which therefore suggests that this "ABC" from 1930.2 to 1975.4 was, summarily, the wave (a) of "e" as was also suggested by the alternate count in the chart immediately above from earlier today.

We are seeing further narrowing since 1975.4, as would be expected, and I have gone ahead and placed labels for (b), (c), (d), and (e) of "e" -- tentatively. There is still the chance that it may not be this simple and wave (b) of "e" is still developing.

In any case, it does looks like this 4th wave triangle is very near to reaching its conclusion.
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Based on Friday's development, I am slightly adjusting my wave count for the triangle as follows:

- Wave "d" was the decline from 1993.6 to 1930.2. This is technically more satisfying as an ABC corrective structure, the archetype for a "D" wave. It also precludes a wave count where the "e" wave falls below wave "d", which did seem a little peculiar in the previous count.

- The final wave "e" is still developing as a triangle in and of itself, as suggested before, but the technical structure of it is also more satisfying when relabeling it as a result of the shift in wave count for "d" described above:

- Thereafter, the rally to 1965.2 was wave "(a)" of "e".
Note: this is the longest wave of the "e" triangle structure, (i.e. therefore the length of "e") and is exactly 0.382 the length of wave "c" of the greater 4th wave triangle, which is significant and inspires confidence in this count.

- Then the decline to 1938.6 was wave "(b)" of "e"

- The present rally is wave "(c)" of "e", or the first leg of it, as long as it does not exceed (a) at 1965.2.
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AynCzubas AynCzubas
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