SP500 - New high without follow through and with no momentum
Daily: Price got lifted to new high, but with now real momentum. Actually it can be still considered as a range top with some spike attempt above. Look at Ichimoku components: Tenkan and Kijun very close to each other, both flat. Not pointing anywhere. Senkou A and Senkou B (future cloud) flat as well. ADX below 20, DMI shows undecision too. Slow Stoch is overbought, looks like turning down a bit (not yet signalling a sell). MACD negative divergence compared to price action. Bulls really need a quick momentum gain, otherwise more profit taking will send price lower again. Start watching Kijun Sen, which is higher a bit now. In case daily candle closes below Kijun (1967), then we may see a bigger dip than last one, with also chance for a weak Tenkan/Kijun bearish cross.
4 Hrs: Ichimoku is bullish, but DMI-ADX shows lack of momentum here as well. Bulls would like to see it higher I know, but somehow they get all what they want to buy.
1 Hr: Price in the Cloud, means undecision. Chikou confirms it as hit price candles. I don't know if this uptrend line is poperly drawn, but looks like a break soon. Key level is 1982. If Price trades below that, it will go lower in teh range again.
Supports are: 1982 / 1967-1971 / 1946 / 1925-1930
Since I still believe SP500 may be stuck in this range, I would use 1 Hr time frame to look for short entry below 1982, with initial Stop at 1990. Trade size is 0,5-1 unit maximum.
Additional observation: Even with SP500 hitting new high yesterday, VIX futures kept well bid. August VIX could not go below 12,90. CPCE is increasing, so there is clearly a protection buying on options mkt. Probably those options traders who sell the puts need to delta hedge, that is one reason why the underlying SP500 and the E-mini SP futures can not get further bullish momentum.
Number of Stocks (SP500 components) above 50 days SMA and those above 200 day SMA have been decreasing since the previous peak, which means single stocks participation it this Bull phase is less and less.
4 Hrs: Ichimoku is bullish, but DMI-ADX shows lack of momentum here as well. Bulls would like to see it higher I know, but somehow they get all what they want to buy.
1 Hr: Price in the Cloud, means undecision. Chikou confirms it as hit price candles. I don't know if this uptrend line is poperly drawn, but looks like a break soon. Key level is 1982. If Price trades below that, it will go lower in teh range again.
Supports are: 1982 / 1967-1971 / 1946 / 1925-1930
Since I still believe SP500 may be stuck in this range, I would use 1 Hr time frame to look for short entry below 1982, with initial Stop at 1990. Trade size is 0,5-1 unit maximum.
Additional observation: Even with SP500 hitting new high yesterday, VIX futures kept well bid. August VIX could not go below 12,90. CPCE is increasing, so there is clearly a protection buying on options mkt. Probably those options traders who sell the puts need to delta hedge, that is one reason why the underlying SP500 and the E-mini SP futures can not get further bullish momentum.
Number of Stocks (SP500 components) above 50 days SMA and those above 200 day SMA have been decreasing since the previous peak, which means single stocks participation it this Bull phase is less and less.
