finitemonk

Was that the top?

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
72 0 0
Is the question. I've read comments like elsewhere like 'of course it is' .. Hmm. Volatile, & looking a bit well, toppy            
'Depends how you count it.' : see previous post (may not been my best post - bit Friday afternoon, nevertheless, it does depend how you count it).

More clearly:
If this wave is counted as complete, as looks natural, in, of itself, from 2011-10-03, then no, almost certainly not.
(I know many who have counted from March 2009 low as all one wave, & if so done the intermediate count all shifts back 1, as I had done prior, indicated light grey). Should it near effortlessly retrace near 50% of last weeks drop in 24 hours? Possibly not. One of the quickest bounces back up. Looking at other tops, 2011, 2007, there seems to be more of an ending structure, volatile, & not as simple as here.

Because:

if that was wave (4) this week gone, it is 67.45% of wave (2), very close to 0.666, one of those fib-like ratios, simply 1/1.5 or 2/3 --- 0.666^2 = 0.444 ( ^ : to the power of).

Written all over it:

1)Wave (v) of 3 is 143.95% of (i) of 3 // 1.444

2) Wave (1) is 219 // 219 x 0.444 = 97.2 & 1925.1 (bottom of wave (4) + 97.2 = 2,022.3 - i.e wave (4) is 0.444 x (1)

3) Wave 1 of (3) is 129.5% of wave 5 of (3), or 5 is 0.772 of 1 // 1.25 x 0.618 = 0.772

4) More traditional fib relationships : wave (ii) of 3 is 161% of wave (iv) // wave (iv) is 62.1% of wave (ii).

Conclusion: all this can, & I think probably should be, counted as one integral             wave, however you interpret the previous action, therefore if the count is correct, has one more wave to go: that was not the top. Let's see how this plays out, as a strong possibility, this should be considered.
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