Ridiculous rally until the Brexit vote and FED rate hike in June

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
1073 3 16
"Apple" is still leading the market. The "Apple" stock has double bottomed (in a ugly way) and the rest of the market is now following higher. Oil             might continue the rally higher beyond 50 "US Dollar" and China might have also double bottomed. If all of this becomes true the market has gotten rid of all negative trends which so far lowered equities. If the squeeze which dragged down stocks for over a year breaks out to the upside a lot of investors might get caught on the wrong side. Therefore the move would be very big.

Target: 2300 points or higher.
Stop loss: 2025 points

This might not happen at such a fast pace to such a high level, but it's possible with the majority of the marketing being bearish (as I also was until today).

The deadline for applying for a postal vote at the Brexit referendum in Great Britain is Wednesday 8 June 2016:

Next FOMC meeting is June 14-15 2016.

The Brexit referendum is being held on Thursday, 23 June.
Comment: Very big error on my chart. After I posted the chart 20 days ago at 2070 points there actually was an uptrend (to 2120 points) and it ended right as I had anticipated on 8 June 2016. But my chart shows 8 July 2016. I confused month 06 with month 07 when I drew the vertical time line onto my chart. Which allowed such a large spike higher to 2300 points until the Brexit. A massive error as I said.

8 June was the deadline for applying for a postal vote at the Brexit referendum in Great Britain, which I highlighted in bold font type as key date in the text when I first posted the chart above.

New China economic data released today was somewhat ok and not too bearish. But crude oil started to decline already last week and several indexes show a potential downtrend. If Monday closes bearish on S&P 500 and DOW Jones and Nasdaq, then I fear we might see further decline for quite some time even ahead of the Brexit result. But I don't post a new chart until Tuesday. I got often enough fooled with a bearish ending week, which then magically bounced back up higher on Monday.
thats too fast.. mid 2017
Generally agree with your consensus. Expecting the true bear market to begin after those new highs are achieved.
+1 Reply
A chart with the Bollinger Band %B with the trend direction I also drew on the main chart above. There is room to the upside if it holds above the zero line, which today seemed to have been confirmed:

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