There's some significant alignment at the blue level indicated in the chart above:
1) 618 retracement
2) 50 day simple moving average
3) Volume profile
Looking at the daily time frame the 50dsma held throughout the year so I expect that to continue:
Odds are we at least see a minor dip from here as September is seasonally weak + we have quadwitching on September 17 (futures, index options, stock options, and single stock futures expire simultaneously).
1) 618 retracement
2) 50 day simple moving average
3) Volume profile
Looking at the daily time frame the 50dsma held throughout the year so I expect that to continue:
Odds are we at least see a minor dip from here as September is seasonally weak + we have quadwitching on September 17 (futures, index options, stock options, and single stock futures expire simultaneously).
Comment:
The S&P tagged the 50 day moving average yesterday, now let's see if that 4420 level gets bought - I am a buyer there. If the 50dsma doesn't hold, the next MA I'll be paying attention to is the 90d which is around 4350.
Comment:
This trade doesn't interest me because there are a lot of stocks with higher relative strength that are easier to hold / execute. Showing my thought process here if this was the only asset I could trade.. For now, I'm mainly using the S&P as a way to gauge market direction/whether the wind will be at my back or not. In my opinion, indicies probably want more downside into October based on the weakness I'm seeing in FAANG.
Comment:
90dma held for now